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What Would A Top Feel Like?
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I haven't been great, as of late, in judging investor sentiment. I've distrusted this rally all the way above S&P 1400. That's fine--I may have lost an opportunity but I haven't lost money. But now I distrust my own judgment. As soon as I wrote a post where I simply imagined becoming bullish, the market sold off and continues to do so today (thank you, AIG). Therein lies the trick with sentiment--when you feel the market is doomed and want to sell everything, it's rally time; when you feel you should finally stop being a bear and jump on board, it's correction time. I've been asking myself, what would a top (meaning a top to the Bear Stearns rally) feel like? Maybe something like this: * Calm. Volatility is low. Wasn't it silly to panic? I didn't intend to use all C's there, but once I started I couldn't stop. Sorry about that. The point is, while I haven't been spot on as far as anticipating changes in sentiment, I wonder if we won't look back at this week consider it the end of a bear market rally. Isn't this what it would feel like? I'm not predicting, I'm just thinking out loud. [Simultaneously posted on my personal blog.]http://thestocksurfer.blogspot.com/2008/05/what-would-top-feel-like.html | ||
Comments (1)
I am in agreement with you on the bear rally. It has really taken a nice chunk out of me, but I count my blessings since my hedges long kept me from losing more than 10%. I am almost completely tapped out as far as "emergency cash" is concerned, so if you are wrong (an me along with you) then down with the Titanic we go. But then again . . .
---Jonathan
Posted by Jonathan Coyle | May 9, 2008 3:54 PM