January 2008 Archives (Rics Pics)

January 2008 Archives

BEAR MARKET

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If ever a bear market it is now. If you have never traded in a bear market the last 3 months were quite a learning experience. As strocks have become more and more volitile the oppertunities to make money are still there. This is the hard lesson to learn in the bear market.
We must show tremendous patience, We can not, will not panic.( REPEAT) I know when you see your hard earned dollars disappear its hard not to panic.
One must limit thier exposure to the market. I have found buying lower cost stocks an easy way to do this.if you buy a $20 stock you have limited your exposure to around a $4.25 maxium loss per trade in your worst pic.If you do your home work you won't see those losses because the stock will come back. In this volitile market were even good news brings lower stock prices with the right pics you can make money. You must be almost robotic in your pics.
The following RICS PICS must be watched and bought on the low side. If you watch the blog I will give prices to buy and sell. #1 VIP, This company is incredible, it is a Russian telecom with earnings that any red blooded American would be jealous of. In Dec. they piced up 1.5 mill. new subscibers. Growth is unreal. Any way enough of the why heres how.
This stock can eaisily fall $3.00 in an hour and gain $4 in the next 3 hours. That is why it must be watched. RICS PIC BUY at or below $30 to $32 and sell at $34, Then do it agian the next day. If you buy at the low on the chart be calm the money will come. This stock moves FAST.

#2 SIRF Buy now it at its low and will go up until Feb 1 after that you are on your own, I will update RICS PIC BUY at $15 to $17 this stock will go to $19 like I said I will update but right now 1/24 thats all I'm looking to make in it for now.

#3 VSL another telecom you can't lose on. This is another one you must watc h. It just went down today, I will buy today at $26 sell at $30 Watch this stock during the day you can pic this up at $25

#4 NOV This is a good energy pic but agian if you cannot watch this stock don't buy it. I am a day late on this one but still a buy. I will try to keep my blogs up to date and look forward to the new SLO. Good luck to all and try to keep the profits. +UPDATE+ wait for a pull back tommarrow to buy

One more thing, if you feel a need to hold your stocks, Don't read this blog.
I believe in keeping your stocks liquid for next new winner. we will be moving fast so if you use a broker your profits will reflect the time difference. Also read all the blogs there is great advice in most

Hope to here your comments,TIMEISMONEY

LOW COST PICS

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In my last blog I gave advice to purchase lowwer cost stocks and then did not give any so here are afew of my pics

RICS PICS to grow
IO
MTZ
DNN
EPL

Agian I can't stress enough if you can't watch these stocks to buy on the low of the day or near you should not be in the market. The days of calling your broker and saying buy 100 XYZ and 150 of ABC today for me are not gone but they are not now.

Agian, I await your comments, TIMEISMONEY

VSL DOES OK

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If you checked out yesterdays blog and bought some VSL at $27 to $27.80 your day was over at 10:00am today when you sold at 28.70 to $28.90. My hope is you bought at least 100 shares and had a a $100 day. If you did what I did, I took my wife to lunch (there goes my 100) and spent the rest of the day just lounging around and visiting.That my friends is what this blog is all about. Make it and relax. I know we can find at least one stock that does that every day or close to it. When I left you yesterday I should have told you my exact plans. That was to buy all I could buy of VSL and get up around 9:15 am watch the market, sell and take my Friday off. Yes my friends a boat load of research and staring at charts and you too can have a day off. Now VSL has been one of my favorites for about 3 months now. I just checked and it has closed at $27.18. I will let it come down on Monday as it was downgraded ( good news ) on Thursday. Let it drop and buy it up again. The volitity of this stock is unreal. Also watch VIP
( 9:30 AM $35.50 - Close $33.18) it acts the same way just different days. Buy on Monday if it starts down then sell Monday. or Tuesday on the upswing. I will update Monday around 10:30 AM .With these two stocks you can almost make a living.

As far as those lower priced stocks IO, MTZ & MPS all did well and climbing. But as I said many times if you cannot watch these stocks on a consistent basis this blog may be not for you.

Its been a good week and I hope we have many more. Agian I hope to here some comments, Untill then, TIMEISMONEY

AAPL

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Apple, to take the bite, or not to take the bite. Really, if you just look at the competition DELL, and HPQ charts and consider that computer buying alone is the cause for apples concern - then, yes take that bite and smile, But, Apple is not just computers any more. If they were, the stock price would not be a concern. Since it was the come back of the original ownership running the corporation that gave the stock traction the last time it tumbled. Then it was new idea after new idea that kept the bull at full bore. Now, here we are after a disapointing Christmas season of consumer purchases, ( firesale ). No new great ideas being exploited on television. The three great corrections in the market in 6 months and a few pretty good dips not to mention the subprime problems. AND now comes the Federal Goverment to save the day with interest cuts and free money to consumers.
That puts APPL at a short term buy @ $123. with a next week sell. The continued growth of APPL 's stock price will more than likely follow google's chart of growth. We will see more volatity in the stock price with gradual growth. To a trader like me, that means the buying and selling of this stock many times untill the release of the next best, must have tech gadget. At that time, depending on sales, may be the next keep or sell off of this stock. The partnership with ATT may not have been the best short term choice, but, most likely a very good 2 -3 year deal. It limited the availibility of a highly advertised line of products. The push on stock price from that partnership was minimal. ATT could have pushed the iphone harder, but, thier backend payments to Apple prevented ATT from going all in. European sales are realitivly flat or below expectations. Again AAPL is not just a cell phone developer. Take market conditions (correction for over valuation of stock ), the corporations own flat earning expectations, No new great product line being advertised and here we are at $130.
I do not expect AAPL leadership to sit on thier hands here. R & D must be, has to be, working on the next great, must have tech gaget. Improvments to Apples current product line with the intergretation of television, web, phone, music ( pay radio & recorded ), photo, and GPS, there is world growth. Can Apple's leadership take them through a possible world ression and drive their stock price up ? If the past is really a reflection of the future, then buy all the APPL you can get because in the long run we will all see $200 and up, just as we once thought, could it hit $100, yes it did.

NEW DOG OLD TRICKS

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It seems as though we are always racing to the next great stock to put all our time into research and growing our portfolio. After I read a few of the new blogs I suddenly realized how much when I bought my first stock a web site like this one would have been a god send. I think I bought a stock I saw on a free stock report that was availible on the internet. It went something like buy XYZ because its going to triple your money in the first week. Buy it now or you will be left out of this unbelievable stock thats just going to turn the market upside down, everyone is going to wish they got in early like you and so on and so on.
Well, if your new to the stock market don't fall for that " hype ". There are a few other words I can think to call it but lets move on.
To really get started in the stock market, get your self organized first. More than likely if you don't know where to start, this web site is one of if not the best place's to start. Take a couple of the recommendations from the more helpful blogs and get yourself a watch list of just the stocks you plan to buy. Then make a few more watch lists with compoanys listed by cost of the stock i.e. $5 stocks , $10 stocks or by industry like oil stocks or renewable energy stocks or telecom stocks or box store stocks, Whatever is easiest for your personallity. the point is you must start somewhere and getting a list of stocks to follow is a good start. I myself keep my default list with just my newly bought stocks on it and as I sell them I let them drop down the list so I can easily follow them in case I want to rebuy them.
OK now you have an idea on a few stocks to purchase. I am assuming you are using say a stock I or someone on this web blog recomended, which is fine with me, anyway you should still do a minimum of research on the stock. First is the stock in your price range, if so look at the chart for 3 months is the stock going up or looking to go up, ok going up and down next
( chart reading will be a later blog ) then check the earnings per share (EPS) it should be going
up each quarter and the 1st quarter should be higher than the last 1st quarter a year ago and so on for the 2nd 3rd & 4th qurtars Its Ok for a 3rd quarter to be lower than a 4th quarter as long as the 3rd quarter is higher than the previous years 3rd quarter. Compare each 1/4 to its previous 1/4 a year back. As many corporations rely on differernt 1/4s to make the yearly earnings. Its at this point while I am checking the financials of the company that I peek at the dividend return. if over $0.80 or hifgher i write down the record date & payment date. The reason I do this now is by the time this information is published in public papers its usally to late to be helpful. The record date is the date of which you must own the stock to receive the dividend. you can buy on that date and sell the next and still recieve the dividend on the payout date usually within 15 days. Now I am not saying buy a stock just for the dividend as this is a trick that must be planned out. First you must watch the sock on the charts for at least the last 3 years and check the stocks temperment over the month the dividend is up for the date of record.You will not be the first person to try and snag a dividend from a stock. Generally speaking if the date of record is at the end of the month you will see a dip in the price around the 12th of the month to the 23rd.Buy as low as possible. hold untill the date of record and sell over nite that nite. The stock price will drop the next day and continue to drop ubtill the dividend is eaten up and then the stock will begin to raise agian. So, long story short look back at least 3 years to determine the personality of the stock at dividend time. This is not allways allways gonna work but your chances are better the higher the dividend. Warning you should check with your tax advisior to see the consequences to your personal tax return. This is not as easy as it sounds but can be done and there are easier ways to make money in the stock market. After your set up with your stock lists and have done some minumal financial research next read the news of the stock. Has it just been added to the naked short list ? (usaully a bad ) Has the financial officer been asked to step down ? Have sales doubled this month ? You should be able to tell bad from good news but always check the most recent news articals right before you buy.

There are many ways to determine why or why not to buy a strock. This the mininiumilist way to go determining that the stock is somones that has done real research on the stock before it got to you. Recomendations are fine , but rest assurred that most ( not on this web site ) but most are hype to try to get a rallly behind a stock that was sponsored by the stock it self to be self promoted in to the mainstream machine to make the stock price go up. And agian they are all not bad, I remermber one that came on a flyer to my home. Sounded great, I thought I got a few bucks lets try it. Well it went from $1.15 to $9.50 in 3 days. I sold that one and the next hour it fell to $.65 but as I have said before many times it is your money watch it closely.

Ther are many stock screeners out there, MSN has a good one and thier are many available at most stock web sites, some free some not. You can determine several different quaifacations for the type of stock you are looking for. Practice on a stock screener untill you start seeing some top stocks show up like some recomended on this web site. That when you know you are getting there when you come the blogs and see your stocks from your screening. As I said the stock screener is just a part of the process. but a good start as it can cut hours out..

I hope what info is here is helpful to get you on your way to your own stock pics but please there is more and on the weekends coming up we will do more blogs on research

So please any comments , questions, compliants please pass them on to me in the future
Have a great weekend and remember even on the weekend TIMEISMONEY

Charting

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Charting is one the quickest ways to make a buy decision I use. It is the second research I use and the next to last before I buy. Simple charting is obvious buy when the stock is going up. See easy, not so. We are giong deep into the chart. Charting daily begins at 9:30 am when the market opens and cotinues thrughout the day. During daily charting I look for min to min changes in volume and price. Number one rule is do not panic. you cannot watch a chart all day and lose your mind everytime the stocks price goes down or up $1.00. A good stock can fluctuate quite a bit throughout the day. I generally have a stock price for the sell point before the day begins and wait it out. If the stock price falls, even if all day, I pack it up for the next day.

Now how to pick the buy piont of a stock using the chart. I start at the 3 months chart find out where the stock is now. We will use SIRF as this stock does it all.On December 27th it topped out at $ 26.06 and I had been watching for a pull back to buy the stock as in my mind the stock had it all and most importantly a very critical component for GPS to work better and all the top GPS company's are using that componant. So as I said I was waiting for a pull back on the 28th of Dec it droped to $24.46 followed by a rise on the 29th to $25.30 on the 31st it droped to $24.46 I still was looking for a drop to the 10 day Avg. which occurred on Jan 3rd but market conditions screamed a major pull back in the market so I held off untill the 10th the stock bounced back to $19.72 The following day the 11th the stock fell to $18.19 and I bought
( mistake )The next four days SIRF fell to $15.91 at that point the 10 and 15 day averages met and that is when I should have bought. I am not concerned that I wont make money on thnis stock as I see it going to $19 by Feb 1st or 6th. NOW WE have not finished out this play yet but you can see I jumped the gun on the 11th and should have waited untill the 10 & 5 day avges. crossed. The stock would have bottomed and started on its way up. That day I did not follow my rules but my thoughts and the rules in this market will make you money.

MORE on charting to come later on EnjoY the weekend TIMEISMONEY
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/charts/charting.asp?Symbol=SIRF&&ShowChtBt=Refresh=Chart&DateRangeForm=1&CP=0&PT=3&C9=0&ComparisonsF

TODAY VSL

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Agian like Friday, today was VSL's turn to pull the volatity jump up. We could have piked up VSL at $26 to $26.50 and sold at $27.50 to $27.99. Now I. personally don't like same day trades because my real account only allows 3 round trips ( same day buy & sell ) every 7 days or you must be labled a day trader. Check your brokerage account to find your specific rules and regulations on this as it is a very important point to be aware of. If you are allowed round trips great but like I said check it out, there are penalties. If you have not been following my blog I have two stocks I have been buying ang selling the last month or so because I do not trust this market with my money. If you can sneak in and get the market for some profit and get out that is what I will do. My other stock is VIP, both these stocks go up and down at least a dollar a day. almost all the time it happens overnite, today was just one of those days where I used a round trip. Both stocks are solid and have never disappointed.
As far as long term buys I am not comfortable with that yet, I admit i'm a stock junkie but losing money is not my idea of a good time so, I keep liquid to grab profit when I can. Like most I also think we are near the bottom of the market. I wouldn't jump to any conclusions about the rate cuts or any stimulus pakage just yet. I have seen to much good news bring lower stock prices, so just hold on a while, let the markrt go up for 5 to 7 days then a pull back and then maybe go 1/3 in. After seeing the market corrections that have hit lately, its going to take more than here say to get me in. I want to see sloid stock prices for more than 3 or 4 days as we have seen lately.

As for lower priced stocks IO continues to march upward. Throughout the day you could have piced this up between $12.20 and $12.30 It was a very good buy under $12, with a pull back you should still buy at $12.40. Should hit $15.50 to $17 on a run I also doubled my purchase of SIRF today at $16.03, this stock is going to go any day.
I can't wait untill Feb 1 when the contest picks up agian, then we will see some real pros, I am amazed at the stock picks that come to the surface during the competition. If you are new to the stock market keep tuned in and you will get the lessons of your life and make some green too all for free. Thats a buy you can't pass up.

CAN ANYONE TELL ME ?

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Who in the world can tell me who fills in the opening stock price on every stock in every market everyday ? I really don't want to meet this person or computer programmer or whoever but what are they thinking. Where does this stuff come from ? A stock closes at say $100 then has good news all night or no news at all and opens at $85. I am nearly bald over this. Right now, some stock prices are lower than if you just sold all the assets of the company you would have more in cash than if you sold all the stock ? Am I the only one that wants to know or are there more out there ? Are these decisions made on opinion or numbers or some immpossible calculation. Please comment on this as I don't need a complete explanation as just put some sense to it. If it is just buying and selling something is out of wack here. I have seen stocks get bought up then sell maybe 1/3 and the price drops 1/2 the gain. Is there an average stock buy to sell ratio that makes the numbers ? I am telling you I have no idea.. If you do please blog about it. Thank you so much, Timeismoney

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