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Mr. Market is jonesing

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Already the familiar symptoms are beginning to manifest themselves. Any bad news is catastrophic in its potential implications. Occasionally there is an attempt at a rally, which is promptly squashed by a wave of selling. Volume is high, a broad based decline sets in. Puts are at a premium. The VIX is over 20 again. Credit markets will seize up again.

Fortunately the patient has an appointment scheduled for January 29-30. The kindly Dr. Bernanke and his colleagues will give him a complete checkup. The wonders of modern economic science will enable them to determine the exact cause of his malady and prescribe a fitting remedy.

The outcome is inevitable, known to all the participants in advance. The only cure is a prescription for the drug of choice - rate cuts. Dr. Bernanke will emerge from a consultation with his colleagues, pad in hand. He will write out the scrip. Will it be 25 bps or 50? 25 bps is only a maintenance dose; the patient will walk away in surly disappointment or collapse in despair. 50 would be more like it, the party could go on.

Years ago the somewhat firmer and less gentle Dr. Volcker used other methods of treatment, painful at the time, but in retrospect effective as the symptoms abated.

But this time will be different - stagflation will never set in, there will be no need to resort to any of these harsh and draconian remedies, we can ease the patient off his medications in a little while, wean him as it were, maybe sometime after the middle of the year... maybe early next year. We certainly do not want to provoke a crisis by asking the patient to go cold-turkey. No, that would not be good, the symptoms would get worse, it would be horrible.

If only Dr. Greenspan had been more careful writing prescriptions. He could have done better, he would have done better if he had known how, he should have done better. Sometimes we hear from him: he contributes his wisdom to making a diagnosis. Any day now he will announce that the prognosis is grave.

Comments (5)

don ferk:

Tom-Tom the Army-Bomb [ Shell or Shill ? ]

Son,
It starts Jan 8, 2008.
Alcoa ( AA : NYSE ) Reports 4Q & year Earnings.

First of Dow to Report. Sets the Tone for Down, Up or Prone. ( Ooops - would be Poet, there ).

'Paper' Tiger Ben-E-Fitz for Bankers & Seriously Bonded Slaves to their Creditors.
Not GOOD Company to be IN.

Abe Lincoln say, " You can NOT strengthen the Weak by Weakening the STRONG ".

After the Asian Tiger Bust - BOJ ( the Central Bank of Japan ) lowered Rates to ZERO - and the Japanese Economy stayed in Deflationary DolDRUMS for more than a DecADE.

There's NO such of a THING as a FREE Lunch.

No Quckie FIXes, either.

Ka-PPeesh !!!!

Submitted by [ Anonymous ] who has nO Connection to S:O ANY-MO !!!!!

d l:

Mr. Armistead, where and whence did you get these creative writing skills? Your 934 nav belies your ability.

p.s. d.f=v.w.

p.p.s. the three was me (and uh me-oh-my-oh...)

don ferk:

D L

I'm looKING 4 a Luvver WHO won't 'BLOW' ME covers & SHE ( BA - who MUST bee O-Babed ) Is
Sew HARD, 2 FINE ( & Dandy LYON ).


Your IPS sent back PIX(ie)-SURES o' Me ( oh -my-Oh-[ nEVER]MIN(e)d - O' Woman in e-MOTION.
You would have bean EnTHRALLED & InTrigued.
I YAM TSZO Brown-eyed ( actually Golden-Eyed - ask My Cataract Surgeon Sturgeon Or MY Laser-Beam i-Dr. - Them say so 2 ) HandSOME { KIND-a )He-MAN, Johnny Rivers ( o' me Tears - Tears my HEA(r)T OUT of my UnReQ(Tee U )[I Special ED ] Love-Swelled (Hairy Pirate's ) CHEST.
U - Vitamin U - was +3 - ALL 7 STARZ in my Star-CroXXed ( Dis-ASter [ literally BAD STAR] ) Romeo Y Juliet [ Cuban Cigar ] Sad-( in da )- Sack LIFE.

fRUM whence cometh THIS THUSness - Shake-a-SPEAR-e-Ion 4 why, Why, WHY MEeeeeee ?????

Here Is Ur ( Babe-E-Lon(g) City O'Babes ) Song O'SOLOmo(A)n :

Brown Eyed Handsome Man Lyrics (Chuck Berry)

Arrested on charges of unemployment,
he was sitting in the witness stand
The judge's wife called up the district attorney
Said you free that brown eyed man
You want your job you better free that brown eyed man

Flying across the desert in a TWA,
I saw a woman walking across the sand
She been a walkin' thirty miles en route to Bombay
To get a brown eyed handsome man
Her destination was a brown eyed handsome man

Way back in history three thousand years
In fact every since the world began
There's been a whole lot of good women sheddin' tears
For a brown eyed handsome man
It's a lot of trouble was brown eyed handsome man

Beautiful daughter couldn't make up her mind
Between a doctor and a lawyer man
Her mother told her darlin' go out and find yourself
A brown eyed handsome man
Just like your daddy, he's a brown eyed handsome man

Milo Venus was a beautiful lass
She had the world in the palm of her hand
But she lost both her arms in a wrestling match
To get brown eyed handsome man
She fought and won herself a brown eyed handsome man

Two, three count with nobody on
He hit a high fly into the stand
Rounding third he was headed for home
It was a brown eyed handsome man
That won the game; it was a brown eyed handsome man

HEAR izzy anUDDER Song Jes 4 Vitamin U :

Queen Jane AppROXiMATEly - Bob Dylan


When your mother sends back all your invitations
And your father to your sister he explains
That you're tired of yourself and all of your creations
Won't you come see me, Queen Jane?
Won't you come see me, Queen Jane?

Now when all of the flower ladies want back what they have lent you
And the smell of their roses does not remain
And all of your children start to resent you
Won't you come see me, Queen Jane?
Won't you come see me, Queen Jane?

Now when all the clowns that you have commissioned
Have died in battle or in vain
And you're sick of all this repetition
Won't you come see me, Queen Jane?
Won't you come see me, Queen Jane?

When all of your advisers heave their plastic
At your feet to convince you of your pain
Trying to prove that your conclusions should be more drastic
Won't you come see me, Queen Jane?
Won't you come see me, Queen Jane?

Now when all the bandits that you turned your other cheek to
All lay down their bandanas and complain
And you want somebody you don't have to speak to
Won't you come see me, Queen Jane?
Won't you come see me, Queen Jane?

[Anon(eek)WHY-Mouse }
fka - VW Macro-Bus(WHY ?)
fka - formerly KNOWn aZZzzzz

Thomas Armistead:

d_l,

I had signs of some writing ability back in high school but elected to pursue a career in insurance and then accounting - both fields where creativity is problematic. I notice you also liked my conversation with Warren Buffett, another post where I used my imagination.

What's happening here is being retired I am sort of looking at the road not taken, working on skills I never developed. I think the combination of imagination and humor helps me deal with a frustrating year for investments, whether in SLO or my personal portfolio. I'm not sure there is any connection between writing and investing ability - we had some contestants who did awfully well investing but never blogged at all.

My NAV is nothing to get too excited about. My particular brand of value investing served me well from 2001 to 2006, but has done poorly over the past year. Over time, first one style works, then another. The chameleon tactic is good if you can manage it. I compounded the problem by being excessively optimistic about the seriousness of the housing/mortgage/credit crisis. The experiment with "high conviction" investing was less than helpful. I still believe in the idea, but perhaps I will need to improve my analytical skills before taking any more outsize positions.

In any event, I like to take a break from being a guru wannabee and express my thoughts and feelings about investing with a little humor and imagination. I'm glad you enjoyed my latest efforts.

Tom

don ferk:

Tom,

Daniel Pink in his book "A Whole New Mind" describes a new phenomon in which Accounting firms & Business Consulting firms are recruiting heavily ART Majors and English Majors and others in Liberal Arts instead of Management & Accounting types. He said about 30-40% of new hires were members of what he describes as " The Creative Class ".

Learning ' Business STUFF ' is easy & can be taught to NEW Hires. You can't TEACH a thud-head Creativity.

It turns out that Artists and POETS are the best MANAGERS. The are Excellent Communicatore and inspire an atmosphere of Co-Opertatin and ConCensus - they are People Persons.

I liked & enjoyed your 'STUFF" - THE RIGHT STUFF, as well. That's why I was HACKING on you. If I son't like someone or what someone does - I don't even BOTHer with Them.

D L - Good Bye is too good a word, Babe
So I'll just say -- Fare Thee WELL !

Bullmoose ( no relation whatsoever to SLO )

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