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Thoughts on "Tomorrow's Quarterlies" and Analysts Ratings (Short, Frustrated Rant-Of-The-Day): My objective is to play this stock market game using my own judgment; so I try to ignore the experts' ratings. Of course I can't help cheering when somebody else likes a stock I've picked and if many dislike it I do take another look to see if there's something vital I've missed. Ususally there isn't. I look at analysts as a slightly more sophisticated group of gossipers than the people on message boards (see past blog entry). Marketocracy forum postings are an exception because they usually contain viewpoints from all sides of an issue and sometimes include opinions from someine inside an industry. Then, too, I have to deal with the analysts' pie-in-the-sky projections. I grit my teeth and hang on when my pick dips (temporarily) after the quarterly figures are announced because growth or earnings did not meet those "expectations". Who cares? The figures were great and met or exceeded MY expectations. If you have been thinking of selling a stock, conventional wisdom says to do so before the quarterly release and conference call because even if the news is good it will disappoint somebody and the stock will drop. These days, so many people follow this advice that the stock may drop just BEFORE the quarterlies. So to be safe you must sell well in advance. The company's Director of Investor Relations must turn gray watching this. I wish all analysts would just shut up and quietly manage their own portfolios. | ||
Comments (2)
I really differentiate analysts to whom I can trust or not, because it often seems like "too much talk, little help show". Making own judgment is the best unless one doesn't make errors of judgment. The list of cognitive biases affecting it is quite long. Knowing about helps anyway to making financial decisions.
Posted by Armin Stuk | October 10, 2007 4:05 PM
Toro,
Nicely said! I have thought this for years.
I also feel it applies to the general media population.
At least the have a background in finance or a degree.
The talking heads have a degree in BS and a second major in I know it all .
One thing I do know is DuffBeer .
This weekend Mrs DuffBeer and I are meeting DuffBeer jr in his home town of Denver for the
Great American Beer Fest.
Where else would the Duff's hang out
Thanks for your posts.
Cheers, DuffBeer
Posted by DuffBeer | October 10, 2007 4:42 PM