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Port Charles
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Are marine transportation companies still hot or are they now over-valued? In spite of getting in late on this industry, I hoped to find a decently-priced stock in the field. Back in October Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE) showed up in one of my experimental screenings; however, price to sales (ttm) was 12.41 (higher than I like) and many candidates surpassed it in other areas, too. Looking at competitors to the recently popular Dryships (DRYS), Excel Maritime Carriers (EXM), then at the competitors to competitors, I found 21 shipping companies: NPTOY.PK, HUWHY.PK, CKH, DAC, DRYS, DSX, EGLE, ESEA, EXM, FRO, GMR, GNK, NM, OCNF, OSG, PRGN, QMAR, RAMS, SSW, TDW, TK, TNP, TRMA, TRMD. (The first two tickers were immediately ruled out because they are on the pink sheets.) Are there really no outstanding deals left within this group? I decided to compare company figures to their industry as well as to the market in general. Yahoo shows the following industry averages: Well, those statistics look like reasonable value. But where did they come from? Many of the shipping companies had "NA" for various data. Plus, the 5-yr. estimated PEG always makes me nervous. Who is making that projection, anyway? I decided to make an Excel spreadsheet for all companies listing the above data plus 3 more columns: price-to-book, CAPS rating and stock price trend. Ten stocks went to the bottom of the heap immediately because prices were down, flat or squirrily. A few more (including the aforementioned EGLE) did not have the very top year-over-year growth rate. For the rest, I looked for low Pr/Bk, low Pr/Sls and 9 to 30 P/E combined with low projected 5yr PEG. DRYS and EXM were close runners-up in spite of people saying they may no longer be the deal they were. The "Finalists" were QMAR, ESEA, DSX, and NM. In addition, I tentatively kept PRGN. This is a very new Greek company with few figures showing up at Yahoo; however it has received favorable writeups and has a CAPS of 4. As it turned out, neither PRGN nor NM shows up at Marketocracy under the correct company name. That left only Quintana Maritime (QMAR), Diana Shipping (DSX) and Euroseas (ESEA). In my StrategyLab Fund I recently sold Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), which was still down in spite of the fact that it is bargain priced, is growing, and does a lot of business OUTSIDE the US. This left me with about $70,000 to invest; so rather than try to decide among the remaining 3 companies I simply bought $20K of each. May they and their stocks sail onward! | ||
Comments (3)
Dear Bull n' Bear
Don't be confused - find the balance in the middle - find your center, then Grin n' Bear it. Bullish & Ursine Ursa.
As for shipping - it gets slow in the wintertime - the ports freeze up for one, bad storms sink ships, ice forming on decks rolls ships over or simply weighs them down. That's in the Northern Hemisphere though. In the South, it's almost spring and summer is next with cruise ships loaded freezing folks from the North. Look at Carnival CCL - people are cargo, too after all. Also, look at those shipping outfits that have "ice-class" ships. These can operate in the North Sea & Baltic Sea even when there's pack ice or sheet ice. No Competition, High Pay. Take a look at the Baltic Freight Rate Index - it seasonally goes up in late fall / winter. The earlier the winter or colder or more stormier, the more it goes up. I recently did a Blog on Trannies & Shipping - I recommended TNP (Tsakos Navigation) BECAUSE it has moved to acquiring more Ice=Class ships for it's fleet. They 'smell' opportunity there, so do I.
I don't remember what I titled THAT particular BLOG, but it was High-Concept - so much so that most don't notice too much -
--------------------------VikingWarrior
------------------------#266 as of Sunday
- - - - - - - - - - -
From: ToroAndBruin
Thanks for the info. on "ice class". I'll look into it. I was wondering about the problems of freezing while reading the recent forum message about the Hamburger Hafen going public.
Posted by don ferk | November 5, 2007 1:36 AM
Port Charlie,
Me again. My write-up about TNP is in my October Archives, published Oct 12,2007. Tactical Lesson #2 - Seasonal Factors - talking about companies & stocks that do well
in Winter.
I live in SE VA - which is near Cape Charles - geographically. Any relation to Port Charles? Don L. Ferk (aka Viking Warrior) Hampton,VA
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
From ToroAndBruin
Port Charles is the name of a soap opera (and I view the stock market as a soap opera, hence all the titles of soaps plus variations thereon). The creators of the TV series may have been thinking of Cape Charles. I don't know since I never saw the show.
Posted by don ferk | November 5, 2007 2:18 AM
Male Cow Huggy Bear,
Hamburg Hafen is going Public ??? as in " Out of the closet"? Every self-respecting General Issue G.I. has been 'There'. The Port of Hamburg is where military personnel went to pick up and/or leave off their personal made-in-USA vehicles when stationed in Europe during the Cold War. Been there - Done THAT! It's "worse" than den Hague " meaning The Hail or Hail Storm" or (God help me ) AmsterDam & RotterDam put together.
___Please don't "Publish" this --- but here's a sample of Social Life in Hamburg ( at least until sometime in December 2007 ( In LugerHead Lingo followed by a 'transliteration' to Bad English -- )
ToWit :
28th Sep - 29. Sep-29 Dez 2007 December 2007
Olivias Safari Olivias Safari
Ihre Reiseführerin: Their Reiseführerin:
Deutschlands Kult-Drag Queen Olivia Jones steht wie kein zweiter Paradiesvogel für das bunte Leben in Hamburgs schrillstem Stadtteil.
Germany's cult drag queen Olivia Jones is like no other bird of paradise for the colorful life in Hamburg schrillstem District.
Olivia kennt St. Pauli wie ihre Westentasche und garantiert somit exklusive Einblicke in das Leben zwischen Glanz und Elend.
Olivia St. Pauli knows like the back of their hands, thereby guaranteeing exclusive insight into the life of splendor and squalor.
Ausgewählte Stationen: Selected stations:
Café Keese Cafe Keese
Tischtelefone für anonym-schlüpfrige Gespräche gibt es im ehemaligen Tanzcafé längst nicht mehr.
Table phones for anonym-schlüpfrige talks, there is a café in the former dance no longer.
Die plüschige Puff-Atmosphäre und der Ruhm vergangener Tage sind geblieben.
The plüschige Puff atmosphere and the glory days are past remained.
Mittlerweile beherbergt das legendäre Café Thomas Hermanns Hamburger Quatsch Comedy Club.
Meanwhile hosts the legendary Café Thomas Hermanns Hamburger Quatsch Comedy Club.
Vor der Humorhochburg des Kiez' stolpern Sie gemeinsam mit Olivia über Udo Lindenbergs Ehrenstern.
Before the humor stronghold of the neighborhood 'They stumble along with Olivia on Udo Linde hill honorary star.
Davidswache David watch
Die Davidswache liefert Filmen und Serien wie dem "Großstadtrevier" die passende Kulisse.
The David watch returns films and series such as the "metropolitan area" the correct setting.
Und wer auf dem Kiez zu Hause ist, der geht meist auch hier aus und ein - ob er will oder nicht!
And who in the neighborhood at home, which usually goes from here and whether he wants to or not!
Sogar Olivia musste schon bei den Beamten vorsprechen.
Even Olivia had already among the officials appointment.
Kein Zweifel: Hier gibt's die härtesten aber groß-herzigsten Bullen der Stadt - echte Ordnungshüter mit Seelsorger-Qualitäten!
No doubt about it: There's the hardest but groß-herzigsten bulls of the town-planning genuine enforcement chaplain with qualities!
Hans-Albers-Platz Hans-Albers - Platz
Hier hat St. Pauli seinem wohl berühmtesten
Werbebotschafter ein Denkmal gesetzt.
Here, St. Pauli his most famous advertising ambassador a monument.
Der legendäre "Blonde Hans" hat mit seinen Seemannsfilmen das romantisch-verklärte Image des Stadtteils in den Medien geprägt - das Bild des Platzes prägt heute vor allem Gastronomie.
The legendary "Hans Blonde" with his sailor's films, the romantisch-verklärte image of the district in the media - the image of the place characterizes today especially restaurants.
Was geboten wird und wo man sonst noch schlemmen, ja sogar Lilo Wanders in einem Freudenhaus verspeisen kann, ...
What is needed and where to feast else, even Lilo Wanders joy in a house can eat ... Olivia weiß es! Olivia knows it!
Ritze Carve
Zwischen den vermutlich berühmtesten gemalten Beinen der Welt geht's in die wohl berühmteste "Ritze" der Welt.
Among the most famous probably painted legs of the World's most famous in the "chink" of the World.
Hinter dem sündigen Namen verbirgt sich jedoch in Wahrheit eine der normaleren Kneipen St. Paulis: Statt nacktem Fleisch gibt's Korn, Bier, Schnaps und Wein und im Keller sogar einen Boxring.
Behind the name, there is sinful, but in reality one of the more normal Pubs St. Pauli: Instead of bare flesh, there's corn, beer, liquor and wine in the cellar, and even a boxing ring.
Hier schwang schon die Reiseführerin höchstpersönlich das Tanzbein mit Udo Lindenberg und Ben Becker.
This has swung the Reiseführerin himself on the dance floor with Udo Lindenberg and Ben Becker.
Als Stärkung serviert Olivia vor den langen Beinen der Ritze jedem Safari-Gast einen "Kurzen".
As Olivia strengthen served before the long legs of the Safari Carve each guest a "short".
Große Freiheit Large freedom
Hamburgs berühmteste Amüsierstraße hat was für jeden Geschmack - vom Table Dance im berühmten Dollhouse, bis zur Live Sex Show im berüchtigten "Safari", die angesagtesten Discotheken und die abgehalftertsten Animierschuppen.
Hamburg's famous Amüsierstraße has something for every taste, from the famous Table Dance Doll House, to live sex show at the infamous "Safari", the trendy discotheques and abgehalftertsten Animierschuppen.
Hier kann jeder den Abend auf seine Weise ausklingen lassen - nach dem obligatorischen gemeinsamen Abschiedsfoto mit Olivia!
Here, every evening on his way bar.The-after the obligatory joint farewell photo with Olivia!
Stationen, die zudem u. a. im Rahmen der Tour (nach Möglichkeit) gestreift werden:
Stations, which also alia in the framework of the tour (if possible) stripes:
Die Condomerie - das wohl kleinste aber gutsortierte "Kiez-Kuriositätenkabinett", Jennys Second Wonder - die schrillste Transen-Boutique Deutschlands, das berüchtigte "Safari" - hier fallen sogar Biene Maja und Willi in einer Livesex-Bühnenshow übereinander her, das Hustler-Erotikcenter - auch bekannt als verruchtester Souvenirshop der Reeperbahn, das Pulverfass - Deutschlands derzeit wohl bekanntestes "Herren in Damenkostümen"-Kabarett, das Schmidt's Tivoli -hier begannen die Karrieren von Olivia und auch Lilo Wanders, die wohl berühmteste Esso-Tankstelle Deutschlands - zugleich 24h-Supermarkt der Kiezler und Kiezlerinnen, usf.
The Condomerie-smallest but the most well - "location-Curiosities Cabinet," Jenny Second Wonder-the shrillest Trans-Boutique Germany, the infamous "Safari" - here are even bee Maja and Williston in a Livesex-Bühnenshow over her, the Hustler - Erotic Center - also known as verruchtester souvenir shop in the Reeperbahn, the powder keg-Germany's best known being "Men in Women costumes" -Kabarett, Schmidt's Tivoli -hier started the careers of Olivia and Lilo Wanders, the most famous Esso gas station in Germany-at the same time 24 h-Supermarkt the Kiezler and Kiezlerinnen, etc.
Im Ticketpreis enthalten: The ticket price includes:
* Astra-Bier * Astra beer
* Ritze-Schnaps * Ritze-Schnaps
Tour-Dauer ca. 2 Stunden , Treffpunkt U3-St.Pauli, Ausgang Reeperbahn Tour lasts approx 2 hours, the meeting point U3-St.Pauli, starting Reeperbahn
And I THOUGHT Chrome-dome Cramer was "Schrill)!!!
VikingWarrior ( and NOT a Brass Monkey
[Oriental Catamite] either - tongue in cheek & Blood-guttered Long Sword in Scabbard )
(aka Don L. Ferk ) -
SLO-Port : RuthLessIntent
P.S. - Do you know of any Pure-Play Colliers? - With USD $100 Oil, I think Int'l Trade in Coal may be "The-Next-Best-Shipping- 'Thang'.
DLF
Posted by don ferk | November 8, 2007 8:08 PM