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I'd Rather be Playing Poker
Rating: 2.33 (3 votes)
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Right now, I am sitting here as I watch my streaming quotes gyrate like a drunken hula dancer. Is Bear Stearns going to be the first truly large domino? Is everything of value going to crash just because everyone is struggling to cover calls? Is thing going to continue like it did in the 70s or in Japan in the 90s? Right now, I really can't answer any of those questions. I'm even afraid to make a guess. I have heard that when there is blood in the streets like this, it usually signals a buying opportunity of a life time. There's the catch, "usually." Everything thing in the market seems like a complete gamble now. The financials could tumble over like dominoes. Most stocks of good value are in the tanks due to merciless selling to cover margin calls. The "defensive stocks" have not been very defensive as if MO, JJ, KO were not going to make money next year. This is like playing at the roulette wheel. There is no skill involved, just place your chips on the table and watch the little white ball go around the wheel. Where will it land? Nobody knows. The one thing I do know is that the best bet on that table is the house for collect 2/37ths of virtually every bet (even more on some.) I have an idea. I've been playing house game poker since a wee lad though high school and college and many years after that. Then after the poker boom in 2003, I started playing No Limit Hold'em very seriously. I got good enough to play with real money online and learned I can carry my own. I have personally played against at least 1 World Series of Poker Main Event winner and many other famous money players. The thing I love about poker is, if you know what you are doing, it's not really gambling. Yes, the house gets a cut of the pot. But you are not playing against the house, you are playing against the other people at your table. (I will withhold the argument that online poker should be legal and based in the US to collect taxes and to be monitored and regulated for today.) Poker is a skill game. It's about calculating pot odds, knowing your outs and reading the other players. When a player panics at the table, they will lose money going "on tilt." If they keep cool and make the right decisions every chance they can, they will come out ahead even if a decision loses you money in one hand. Can I actually play? I think yes. I've sat with some of the best in the world and held my own. I've come as close as 23 people away from making a TV table out of a field of over 20,000. I have not been to the WSOP yet but I suspect I will play in that tournament some day. This is what makes me think I would honestly be better off going to Vegas with my portfolio today then staying invested in the stock market. If I played very tight, took my time and made good decisions all day long I could grind out a better percentage then even the short ETFs. Why don't I do it? Stress has always prevented me from even considering this. If my nerves shattered, I would probably lose it all. But watching this market is worse then holding pocket aces on an all in against a solid flush draw with a lower pair with 2 cards to come. Today, I don't know which stress would be worse. At least I know the rules won't change mid-game like they are in finance and the market in general recently. Would I like to be sitting across the felt from Chris "Jesus" Ferguson again with my entire portfolio this time (instead of a few hundred bucks?) Would I like to take my chances against Doyle or Phil or Johnny or Daniel? As odd as that seems, today, that prospect seems more comforting and less stressful that watching the market play out today. I feel like I'm holding pocket aces and suddenly, the dealer declared that aces are low in this hand. Good luck to all, | ||
Comments (6)
The stock market is the only game where you can leave your chips on the table indefinitely and not lose money. That is less true now than it has been in the past.
The problem right now is bear raiders, a loose confederation of hedge funds and other miscreants who have discovered they can take down legitimate players by a combination of short sales, rumor, and credit default swaps, and in the case of Bear Stearns, withdrawing their accounts.
The market will stabilize when the Fed a/o SEC intervenes to restore order and prosecute manipulators. In the meantime, any business that is vulnerable by reason of leverage should be avoided.
Tom
Posted by Thomas Armistead | March 17, 2008 11:34 AM
Tom,
I general you are right and this is just a knee-jerk reaction to the current events. But this post was just meant to be a commentary on how the US incorrectly labels playing poker (a skill game) as gambling while investing in the markets is considered "investing." Recently, it just dosn't feel like it.
Also, you do have to remember indefinate time is not on your side. I was heavily vested in stock options in 2000 being a hi tech wiz (in those days) and yet, I can now paper my bathroom with them. It's been 8 years and parts of my portfolio have never recovered. Thank God I was willing to open an E*Trade account and bet agains myself in those days with naked puts or I really would have washed out. If the market tanks and doesn't recover for over 15 years like Japan, what are the odds I live to see a recovery?
Call your 2 cents and raise all in,
Uncle John
Posted by Uncle John | March 17, 2008 11:45 AM
John,
According to your SLO-Port, you are still playing with the House's Money.
If you want a Blood-Sport Game of Skill, play Dominos with Castillian Spaniards or Backgammon with Egyptians or Mah Jongh with Mandarins. That's really SCARY.
So is "Holding" Aces & Eights in Saloon #10 in Deadwood, S.D.
Like the song says, " you've got to know when to Hold 'em, know when to Fold 'em & know when to RUN ".
Over the years I've seen these kind of gyrations before and we have always somehow managed to "Muddle" through. What it takes is the "BELLY" for it - sometimes you can feel the Gnawing. I'm going to sleep through this one - Wake me UP for Meals. OK.
Don L. Ferk
Songs O'da Day :
Kenny Rogers ( & The Muppets )- The Gambler
http://youtube.com/watch?v=XxTmOOvigJY
http://youtube.com/watch?v=XxTmOOvigJY
&
No Matter what shape your stomach is in,
my advice is to take an ALKA SELTZER & CALL Dr. Market in the Morning
http://youtube.com/watch?v=h6PuGcB0lO4
http://youtube.com/watch?v=h6PuGcB0lO4
Have a T-Bone with your Alka-Seltzer, too
( DelMonico's Restaurant on Wall Street went Bankrupt during the last Financial Fiasco - so forget about ordering a DelMonico-Cut Steak )
http://youtube.com/watch?v=Qi7mjSS6ZUM&feature=related
http://youtube.com/watch?v=Qi7mjSS6ZUM&feature=related
Posted by don ferk | March 17, 2008 1:39 PM
Hey Don,
I'll take AA88 any time, every hand. It may get me killed but I'll be winning before I die.
The difference between this market and the 2000-2002 market is I saw and very much understood the internet bubble. I was in the middle of it. I knew there was trouble when the VP of sales came to me one day and asked me to design something into our product that had to do with the internet. I explained the software we wrote and sold didn't have any ".com" rational at all but he just wanted it in the company profile for when they went public. I knew right there what was about to happen.
Maybe it's the same thing today but what makes me uncomfortable is that I don't really understand in detail what is happening other than we have about 500-700 trillion dollars in derivatives (levereaged bets) and a global GDP of about 5 trillion. I don't like those pot odds.
Posted by Uncle John | March 17, 2008 2:01 PM
Uncle John:
I am not a poker player, or even a card player at all. For some reason it never interested me. I have always thought these poker shows on tv were a "tv trend bubble". Seems like everyone has some type of poker show with some non-bathing fat guy with dark glasses and a funny hat moving a couple chips here and a couple chips there. No offense, Uncle....I know I just talked bad about your brethren. Investing is gambling for some people, it's true. It's been gambling for me in this second round of the SLO, with fake chips. Maybe my ego can be kept in check so I don't do anything crazy.
----Jonathan
Posted by Jonathan Coyle | March 17, 2008 4:18 PM
Jaudio,
You have a Mind like a steel Trap with a 'Coil' spring.
Never let 'em see ya SWEAT.
Don't Blink.
All games are nothing more than 'Vicarious' WARfare !!! No more, no Less. Not So ?
A Warrioir never "BLUFFS".
Play the ODDS by the Mathemetical Laws of Probability. Capitalize on your Opponents mistakes & Errors and let the "rum of the Cards" as is determined by Lady Luck be your FATE.
That's the name of the GAME. There is ONLY one rule : If you don't play the Game, you LOSE. Not So ?
Don L. Ferk
Song O'da Day :
"Cast Your Fate to the Wind "
Vince Guaraldi
http://youtube.com/watch?v=PddZZ83Be8E
http://youtube.com/watch?v=PddZZ83Be8E
PS : I'm a VPI & SU Alumni.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=LLJ1aZhKVhk
http://youtube.com/watch?v=LLJ1aZhKVhk
The World, as it is , is a RISKY Place.
Why not embrace & enjoy it while we can ?
Posted by don ferk | March 18, 2008 10:05 AM