Van Meerten's picks

They announced that there is just 2 weeks left and we only have till July 11 to make our mark. It looks like either of three can take the lead: The Bull (Me) - VanMeerten, The Bear - Aardvark and the Beer - DuffBeer. I needed a plan to beat my two closest opponents.

I almost had my strategy. When my portfolio crossed 60% I was tempted to dump everything and go into cash equivalents and hope that no one could top my 60%. But I didn't let Satan tempt me so my sense of fair play kicked in and I thought I'd to the right thing. (That shows what an idiot I am - I put fair play ahead of winning).

The market hit a bump and now Aardvark is barking - or what ever noise an aardvark makes - at my heels so I have cause to worry. I was even tempted to dump everything and invest in exactly what he has. If my return for the rest of the session was equal to his and I'm now ahead he couldn't catch me but that too wouldn't be fair. But I did decide to peek at what they were doing and that gave me the idea for the title of this blog.

My portfolio is a pure stock portfolio. I fully invest in the stocks that are presently doing well in what ever type of market we presently have. Every stock stands and is added or fails and is eliminated from my portfolio on it's own merit (or lack thereof). The old theory of you can't make money if you aren't in the game. My portfolio is pure bull - my stocks are going up and I think I'll just stick it out.

I decided to look at Aardvark's portfolio and was surprised to see there weren't any stocks. Most of his portfolio was in ProShares Ultra Short ETFs. My own personal portfolio contains a lot of these but I thought Marketocracy had a percentage rule about how much of your portfolio could contain funds so my Strategy Lab Open portfolio doesn't contain any. I guess I was wrong because his fund is marked PASS with Compliance. Well it did give me the idea to call him the Bear because he is long the short sided funds. If the market tanks he will be a sure winner.

I see no way to beat him. Both of us have placed our bets and they are exactly opposite. I'm the BEAR and I am fully invested in stocks and if they do well I will win. He is the BEAR and is fully invested in the ProShare Ultra Shorts - he not only found a way to short the market but he managed to leverage it too. (nice gamesmanship of the rules) If the market tanks; the contest is his.

But what about BeerDuff. While I was out at lunch eating a couple of Chicago Dogs - run through the garden at Matt's Chicago Dog here in Charlotte (Yes DuffBeer we do have the real thing down here in Charlotte. Matt has the Vienna Beef dog shipped in with the right green relish, sports peppers, pickles on a poppy seed bun topped with celery salt all shipped in here from Chicago) Hard to tell the difference from the ones at Junior's in Cicero. It was while I was sliding down my second one that I remembered DuffBeer's last blog entitled: "Did anyone notice?" It told of how he looked at his portfolio, went into a beer induced coma and when he awoke this portfolio had sky dived. The idea hit me. DuffBeer - go look out on your porch and you'll find 10 cases of Leinenkugel Honey Wheat beer - the best domestic beer I could find. A case for each of the next ten trading days. I hope you'll stay in the beer induced stupor until July 12 after the contest is over.

There you have it, stay fully invested, pray the market doesn't tank and keep DuffBeer polluted.

Comments: View Comments |  Friday June 27, 2008