Twice a year I mentor the Senior Economics Class at my daughter's school, Charlotte Latin in the Stock Market Game. It's a game where the students get a $100K portfolio to invest and they are pitted against several thousand other teams across the country. I teach them how to use BarChart because it's simple and free and let them know that with that tool plus the rest of the internet they really have more information at their disposal than Peter Lynch did in his heyday. Be careful not to get sensory overload! Every session several of the teams always rank in the top ten and almost all of the teams I mentor beat the market. The homework assignment is easy: Watch Mad Money and Fast Money on CNBC with your parents and decide if the shows are really investment knowledge you can use or just entertainment.
I instruct them that BarChart will tell them the 3 things needed for sucessful investing: 1 - Knowing what the Market is doing, 2 - Help you select stocks that are doing the best right now and 3 - how to decide when a stock needs to be eliminated from your portfolio. If you take a disciplined approach using these 3 knowledge sets it's hard not to make money and even harder to lose money.
WHAT IS THE MARKET DOING? - I look at 3 things - the S&P 500, the Value Line Index and BarChart's Market Momentum. I do a simple custom chart of the current price, 20 day Moving Average, 50 day MA and 100 day MA of the S&P 500 and the Value Line Index. The Market Momentum page tells me the number of shares traded up and down in various exchanges and the total number of stock trading above their 20, 50, 100, 150 and 200 day MA. It really gives me the pulse of the overall Market and even the number of stock reaching new highs and new lows.
WHAT STOCKS SHOULD I ADD TO MY PORTFOLIO - Simple - take the new high list go to the 65 day new high column and sort for frequency. If a stock has hit 25 new highs in the last 65 trading sessions I'd probably want to own it. Take the top 10 new highs and look at all the info on BarChart about it. Only own proven winners.
WHAT STOCKS SHOULD BE ELIMINATED FROM MY PORTFOLIO - I've tried all sorts of Technical Analysis indicators and find the 50 day moving average suits me best. When a stock is trading below it's 50 day moving average I seldom find a reason to continue to hold it.
Just 3 simple steps: 1 - Know where the Matket is going now, 2 - Screen for the best stock to add to your portfolio and 3 Weed out the ones you've bought that aren't performing.
Lastly, I tell them the Kenny Roger's Rule of Investing: Know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, know when to walk away, know when to run.
If you evaluate the overall market, select only the best proven stocks to buy and weed out those that have run their course, then it's hard to go wrong. As my German teacher in college summed it up: " If you want to do well in my class and in life as well you must exercise 3 values - DISCIPLINE, DISCIPLINE, DISCIPLINE!" Thank you Professor Schmidt.
Comments: View Comments | Sunday June 15, 2008
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Archive Comments (8)
I'm not clear on how you use the "what the market is doing" step. It looks like you're tracking a lot of index moving averages, but how are you using that information?
It looks like your stock selection process is the same regardless of what the overall market is doing. What am I missing?
Good post.
Posted by Russell Krull June 15, 2008 12:40 PM
I agree with you, Barchart.com is one of the best websites on the web for picking stocks. I have a question about your artical. In the section "WHAT STOCKS SHOULD I ADD TO MY PORTFOLIO" you say if a stock has hit 25 new highs in the last 65 trading sessions you would buy it. My question is you say take the top 10 new highs and look at them, are you talking about the top 10 that have hit 25 new highs or after you sort the list the top 10 stock on the list with the most new highs?
Posted by wrmason June 21, 2008 7:49 PM
I wish someone gave me this fantastic advise twenty years ago!!!!!
Many thanks!!
Posted by amylou June 23, 2008 1:12 PM
I want to know which way the market is going because the stocks that are going up when the market goes up are usually not the same stock that go up when the market goes down. If the market has changed direction I need to be alert and immediately cull the stock that turn down in the "new" market,
Posted by vanmeerten June 23, 2008 8:29 PM
hi, vanmeerten
I am a big fan of your articles. They are priceless as an advice for individual investors.
When I read your comments "If the market has changed direction I need to be alert and immediately cull the stock that turn down in the "new" market", do you mean you will sell those holdings which you believe they will turn down in the "new market" regardless the stop loss that you have placed before? Thank you for your comments.
Posted by hosthelp8 June 24, 2008 12:35 PM
Hi,
When you say 'immediately cull the stock that turn down in the "new" market' does it override the stop loss placed on the holdings ?(say 10-15%)
Posted by hosthelp8 June 25, 2008 1:56 PM
I always let my charts and screens do the talking. If the market changes I put all my stocks on a watch list. In fact I cull every night but only those that are not making the grade.
Posted by vanmeerten June 25, 2008 7:02 PM
I use Barchart.com but was unable to find the 65 day new high list. Do you need to be a member to see this infromation?
Posted by bsmith19 July 18, 2008 7:43 PM