Every weekend on Financial Tides I try to cut through all the headlines and sound bites that just confuse the heck out of me to step back and figure out what really happened in the past week and decide what to do in the next week. As always I get my data from Barchart. I use the same 3 benchmarks so I don't confuse myself.

Value Line Index -- I use this because it contains 1700 stocks making it broader than the S&P 500 or the even narrower Dow 30 - Down .4% for the week but still up 4.65% for the month.

1 - The Index closed on Friday above all 3 daily moving averages -- 20, 50 & 100 DMA

2 - Barchart's 13 technical indicators had 8 buys, 3 holds and 2 sells for a 48% overall buy rating

Barchart market momentum -- The percentage of stocks trading above their DMAs for various periods -- If the figure is above 50% then you have better than 1/2 a chance to make some money -- all 3 slightly down but still in your favor

1 - 20 DMA -- 73.25% closed above the 20 DMA -- down from 74.89% last week

2 - 50 DMA -- 58.95% closed above the 50 DMA -- down from 61.39% last week

3 - 100 DMA -- 66.14% closed above the 100 DMA -- down from 67.38% last week

Ratio of stocks hitting new highs to new lows for various time frames -- 1.0+ bullish, 1.0 neutral, below .99 bearish -- looks like we are still OK this week

1 - 20 day ratio of new highs to new lows -- 1171/271 = 4.32

2 - 50 day ratio of new highs to new lows -- 486/138 = 3.52

3 - 100 day ratio of new highs to new lows -- 406/102 = 3.98

Summary -- We were just slightly off the momentum we had last week but not really negative. Might be a good week to cull what hasn't performed and search of some new replacements next week.

Wall Street Survivor results -- Well for the month the S&P 500 was up 2.85% and 5 of our Top Stock contestants beat that mark. Anthony Mirhaydari lead the pack with a 10.57% MTD return and I managed to follow closely with a 10.05% increase. On Friday I sold Tyler Technologies (TYL) because it just wasn't maintaining a price above its 50 day moving average. I'll hunt for a replacement later next week.

We've turned another page on the calender so let's see who the new leader will be next month.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure - No positions in any stock mentioned.

Comments: View Comments |  Saturday February 27, 2010

I'm from the south and one of the first things I experienced my freshman year is college was a breakfast of Krispy Kreme (KKD), the breakfast of champions. Once you've had one coming right off the line you're hooked. This is the donut with a cult following and just won't go away. A few years ago, KKD was the darling of the investment community with major plans to take their gourmet vices into China. They were opening stores left and right but seemed to just get too big for their britches -- along with the rest of us that were goggling up those treats.

Lately the stock has just languished and not done very much. In the past month something has been happening. All of a sudden KKD came up on my Barchart screener for stocks having the most frequent price appreciations. The price has been moving up and the stock had price appreciation in 7 of the last 20 trading sessions and 4 of the last 5. In the last 20 sessions there has been a 15.38% price increase. The stock is enjoying very positive ratings on Barchart's short term technical indicators.

Analysts are not real high on the stock but do predict a 20.5% increase in earning per share this year and a 15% EPS 5 year growth rate.

Why the priced movement? There are some rumors that Wendy's or some other chain may either buy the company outright or begin offering their donuts as a breakfast item. KKD has been known to sell smaller versions of their donut frying machines that can be used as an alternate to owning a whole store.

This is a stock to watch and maybe place a stop on the 20 day moving average in case the rumor is full of holes.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure: no positions at the time of publication

Comments: View Comments |  Monday February 22, 2010

Each weekend I use Barchart to screen for a list of stocks that I think may be of interest to my readers in the coming week. I am not recommending these stocks, I just want to share with you a screening process and it's up to you to do further research and see if there is a place in your portfolio for these issues.

I start with the list of stocks hitting new highs and lows for the last 20 days and sort for frequency. I then take the top 10 from each list that have hit new milestones in at least 50% of the last 20 sessions. That list of the 10 top gainers and 10 top losers is where I start.

I put them all in a test portfolio and then start eliminating stocks. First I cull any that do not score as 80% short term buy or sell signal on Barchart short term technical indicators. Next I cull any that do not have a positive or negative price change for the last 5 days. That list leaves me with just 11 issues out of the original 20. I list the information from Barchart and Yahoo Finance that is available to all of you.

Long Positions:

PTIE -- Pain Therapeutics is developing a new generation of opioid painkillers.Opioids are drugs derived from the poppy plant. The company uses technology to reformulate opioid drugs, such as morphine, into new painkillers with improved clinical benefits. The company has four opioid painkillers in Phase II clinical trials. The company believes its drugs offer enhanced pain relief, fewer adverse side effects and reduced tolerance and addiction compared to existing opioid painkillers.

The issue has hit new highs on 17 of the last 20 sessions with a 19.11% price appreciation in the last month. Analysts think the stock will increase sales 137.1% next year and have a 5 year compounded EPS growth rate of 83.0%

MEND -- Micrus Endovascular Corporation is a medical device company that develops, manufactures and markets implantable and disposable medical devices used in the treatment of cerebral vascular diseases.

Increases in price in 17 of 20 sessions plus an increase in price of 33.66%.

ISSI -Integrated Silicon Solutions designs, develops and markets high performance memory devices including static random access memory, low and medium density dynamic random access memory, and nonvolatile memory, as well as voice recording devices and certain microcontrollers and embedded memories. Their memory devices are used in networking applications, telecommunications, data communications, disk drives and other peripherals, personal computers, office automation, instrumentation and consumer products.

The stock has had a price appreciation on 14 of the last 20 sessions and a 46.11% price increase of the month. Analysts look for sales to grow 14.5% and EPS by 29.4% nest year with a 10% 5 year compounded EPS growth for the next 5 years

ZARLF -- Zarlink Semiconductor delivers wired, wireless and optical connectivity solutions that bring together networks and people, and it provides highly specialized ultra low-power chipsets for use in medical applications. Zarlink customers include Samsung, Motorola, Alcatel, Mitsubishi, Cisco, Sony, Nortel, Lucent, Siemens, Ericsson and Fujitsu.

Price appreciation in 14 of the last 20 session with a price appreciation of 54.45%. Analysts look for sales increase of 9.8% plus EPS growth of 1500% (off a loss) and a 5 years EPS growth of 12.5%.

SLE -- Sara Lee Corporation is a global manufacturer and marketer of high-quality, brand-name products for consumers throughout the world. The company's mission is to continue to build leadership brands in consumer packaged goods categories. The company has three global businesses: Food and Beverage, Intimates and Underwear, and Household Products through which it manufactures and markets products of exceptional quality and value under leading, well-known brand names such as Sara Lee, Earth Grains, Jimmy Dean, Douwe Egberts, Chock full o' Nuts, Hanes and Playtex.

13 price increase in the last 29 sessions with a 14.79% price increase. Analysts estimate an increase in sales of 4.0% with EPS growth of 8.9% next year plus EPS growth of 8.77% for the next 5 years.

PRGO -- Perrigo Company, is the nations largest manufacturer of store brand over-the-counter (non-prescription) pharmaceutical products and also manufactures store brand nutritional products. Store brand products are sold by national and regional supermarket, drugstore and mass merchandise chains under their own labels and compete with nationally advertised brands. The Company's products include analgesics, cough and cold remedies, antacids, laxatives, feminine hygiene and smoking cessation products, and vitamins, nutritional supplements and nutritional drinks.

Price appreciation in 13 of 20 sessions and a price increase of 16.73% for that period. Analysts estimates of sales up 7.9%, EPS up 9.2% and 5 year EPS growth of 17.45%

LANC -- Lancaster Colony Corp. manufactures and markets three families of products: Glassware and Candles; Specialty Foods; and Automotive. Consumer glassware includes a diverse line of decorative and ornamental products such as tumblers, bowls, pitchers, jars and barware. The food products manufactured and sold include salad dressings and sauces; fruit glazes, veggie dips and fruit dips; frozen unbaked pies. It also manufactures and sells a complete line of rubber, vinyl and carpeted car mats both in the aftermarket and to original equipment manufacturers.

13 of the last 20 session have had price increases with a 14.58% price appreciation. Analysts think EPS will be up 43.33% this year and revenue up 4.1% next year.

Sell or Short positions -- If you own these consider selling; if you're experienced you might short these:

DTSI -- DTS, Inc. is a digital technology company dedicated to delivering the ultimate entertainment experience. DTS decoders are in virtually every major brand of 5.1-channel surround processors, and there are more than 300 million DTS-licensed consumer electronics products available worldwide. A pioneer in multi-channel audio, DTS technology is in home theatre, car audio, PC and game console products, as well as DVD-Video, Surround Music and DVD-ROM software.

Price decreases in 14 of the last 20 sessions for a loss of 12.41%.

PBIB -- PBI Bank, Inc. provide quality banking services, great rates and excellent customer service. We believe PBI Bank represents the future of banking and our growing customer base agrees. PBI Bank, Inc. is headquartered in Louisville, KY. They have many banking centers across Central Kentucky to serve our customers banking needs.

Price deceases in 13 of the last 20 sessions plus a 23.73 Loss in price

ELGX -- Endologix, Inc. develops, manufactures and markets products for the treatment of coronary and vascular diseases. A leader in the emerging field of vascular brachytherapy, Endologix, has developed a unique method for the delivery of radiation to prevent restenosis following the interventional treatment of atherosclerosis.

11 prices losses in 20 sessions for a 15.62% loss.

Bonus stock:

This is a stock you may eventually hate. It has no revenue and has a lost of competition and it's price action may for tell a pump and dump. This is a lotto ticket.

NGLF -- National Golf Emprioum -- 17 price increase in to session for a 200% price increase -- only for the most experienced speculators.

Don't buy or sell any of these without through research to see if the trades are right for you.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com
Disclosure: no positions in any of these stocks at the time of publication

Comments: View Comments |  Sunday February 21, 2010

For those of you who think that financial columnists should be able to tell you exactly why the market went up or down each week you won't find that in my column. I just want to know what happened and I'll let the others give you what they think were the 58 different causes of last week's improvement. I'll just say that the anticipation and then the execution of Tiger's attempt to salvage his reputation saved the market and that guess has as much validity as anyone elses' prognostications.

First let's visit the Conference Board's report on the Leading Economic Index -- LEI. You'll remember that this is a once a month report I use to get a quick gauge on the state of the economy. The LEI was up .3% for the tenth month in a row with the Coincident Economic Index up .2% and the Lagging Economic Index is still declining at .1% but slowing. That makes 2 up and the Lagging slowing -- good signs of good things happening.

Now on to my 3 Barchart indicators that I follow:

The Value Line Index -- contains 1700 stocks so it's broader than the S&P 500 and the narrower Dow 30 -- up 3.45% for the week which is the second week in a row of price appreciation

1 - Barchart's 13 technical indicators rate the index a 64% buy with 9 buys, 3 holds and only 1 sell
2 -The Index closed Friday above its 20, 50 & 100 daily moving averages

Barchart market momentum indicator -- approximately 6000 stocks covered -- the percentage of stocks closing above their DMAs for various time frames -- good signs here too

1 - 20 DMA -- 74.99% closed above -- only 36.77% did last week
2 - 50 DMA -- 61.58% closed above -- only 42.92% did last week
3 - 100 DMA 67.49% closed above -- only 53.72% did last week

The ratio of stocks hitting new highs to stocks hitting new lows for various time periods -- 1.0+ bullish, 1.0 neutral, below .99 bearish -- very bullish this week

1 - 20 day new high to new low ratio -- 1672/306 = 5.46
2 - 65 day new high to new low ratio -- 559/94 = 5.94
3 - 100 day new high to new low ratio -- 431/69 = 6.25

Summary -- According to the Conference Board indices the economy in the US is improving. My 3 Barchart indicators tell me the market is improving. I'm happy.

This week's investment strategy -- with both the economy and the market giving a thumbs up I'll trim any stock not trading above its 50 DMA and not be afraid to replace it. I'll stay fully invested but as always will trim if the individual stocks reverse.

Over on the Wall Street Survivor competition Anthony Mirhaydari is in first place for February so far and managed to get an 11.22% return with the S&P only up 3.29% for the same period. I got the silver so far this month with a return of 9.43%. I'll trim out ScanSource Inc (SCSC) for failure to maintain a price above its 50 DMA and I'll wait till the market opens on Monday to replace it.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure : I hold no positions in the stocks mentioned in this article

Comments: View Comments |  Saturday February 20, 2010

I'd like you all to join me in an effective product recall. We all agree that when a product does not work the way the seller promised us it would it's a fraud on the public and the product should be recalled. We should all have the right to send the product back and have our money refunded. It really becomes a problem when the product is ineffective and doesn't work at all or worse injures the public.

The representatives we sent to Washington think they should have the right to call the President of Toyota to come from Japan, bow before them and take a whipping in public for knowing he had a problem and taking too long to fix it. Some are even asking for his resignation. Let's use the same standard on them.

We sent them to Washington to fix some problems. We even identified the problems we wanted fixed. We wanted effective financial regulation with jobs for everyone between 18 - 65 who is able bodied. We wanted affordable housing and secure communities. Every American should be able to have nutritious food, decent medical care and an opportunity to an education. We wanted full funding for our military so that when we send them into a conflict that is in our interest they have all the tools and the go ahead to get the job done safely, quickly and effectively and get home fast. We want secure borders.

I don't know about you but I feel that they have postured and discussed and did ineffective fact finding worse than Toyota ever dreamed of.

I am tired of Washington not fixing the problems we have all identified for them. They have promised us that they agreed with our requests and they had what it took to fix them. All we had to do was vote for them -- and maybe send a few bucks to their campaign chests.

I haven't seen a single problem fixed; in fact some are even worse. It's time for that product recall to happen. The representatives in place are ineffective and even detrimental to the health of America.

When you go to the polls, start the product recall. I don't care if the candidate is a Democrat, Republican, Libertarian or independent; the party I want to see out of office is the Incumbent Party.

The way to turn around our economy is to get a new ship and a fresh crew.

We need new blood and new ideas. Let's all clean house, go out and find new candidates that can think outside the box and get the job done.

It's been said insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Isn't that what we've been doing? We send the same people who were ineffective back to Washington hoping they will be effective this time.

Join me in a total product recall of the product we sent to Washington. Join me in a defeat of the Incumbent Party and send them all home.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Comments: View Comments |  Friday February 19, 2010

Back when I was a student I used to spend hours in the library reading Trendlines and Value Line. I learned two important lessons: always know what industries are presently enjoying the best price momentum and then find the best companies in those industries. According to Barchart the strongest industry in the last 30 days has been the broadcasting industry. I begin my search by sorting the industry for the stocks having the best current relative strength and limit my research to the top 10.

To help me whittle down the list I use Barchart's 13 technical indicators and eliminate those that rank below 100% on all 13 indicators. Last, I want to make sure that the stock had a price appreciation in the last 5 days. I'm left with just 4 stocks. Let's research them one at a time.

Sirius XM (SIRI) -- according to their press release: Sirius Satellite Radio is building a digital satellite radio system that will broadcast up to 100 channels of music and entertainment programming to motorists throughout the continental United States. The company plans to offer channels of commercial-free music and channels of news, sports and entertainment programming for a monthly subscription fee. Sirius Satellite Radio has an exclusive agreement with Ford Motor Company to install Sirius receivers in Ford vehicles.

The stock had 8 price advances in the last 20 sessions and increased in 4 of the last 5 days. It has a buy on all 13 of Barchart's technical indicators and had a 56.72% increase in the last 30 days.

On the fundamental side analysts estimate that sales will increase 11.2% next year with a whopping 91.7% increase in earnings per share. The 5 year compounded growth rate is expected at 30% per year. They give the stock 3 buy and 3 hold recommendations.

Lin TV Corp (TVL) -- LIN TV Corp. is a pure-play television company covering the United States and Puerto Rico. They own and operate television stations and provide management or sales services to television stations. Under local marketing agreements, they provide substantial portions of the broadcast programming for airing on another station in the same market as a station they own and operate and sell advertising time for that station.

The stock has enjoyed price appreciation in 10 of the last 20 sessions and had 3 increases in the last 5 days. It too gets 100% rating on all 13 of Barchart's technical indicators and had a 27.38% price increase in the last 20 sessions.

Analysts consensus is for a 23.7% increase in sales and a 1133% increase in EPS. Sounds big but that's voodoo math coming from a loss this year. There is only 1 hold recommendation out there.

Global Traffic Network (GNET) -- Global Traffic Network is a provides custom traffic and news reports to radio and television stations outside the U.S. The Company is a Delaware corporation that, through its two wholly-owned operating subsidiaries, provides customized traffic and news reports to affiliated radio and television stations, in exchange for commercial airtime inventory. The Company operates traffic and news network in Australia, and is quickly ramping operations in Canada. In exchange for providing custom traffic and news reports, television and radio stations provide Global Traffic Network with commercial airtime inventory that the Company sells to advertisers. As a result, radio and television stations incur no out-of -pocket costs when contracting to use Global Traffic Network's services.

Again this stock hits 13 out of 13 for Barchart's technical indicators. The stock had 10 price increases in the last 20 sessions and is 3 for 5 recently. The price increase in the last 20 sessions was 12.67%.

Analysts expect a 10.3% increase in sales and earnings increase of 1050%, coming off a loss. Recommendation of 3 buys and a hold are there.

Sinclair Broadcast Group (SBGI) is the last to make the cut. Sinclair Broadcast Group is a diversified broadcasting company that owns or provides programming services pursuant to local marketing agreements to more television stations than any other commercial broadcasting group in the United States.

With all 13 of Barchart's technical indicators signaling buy the stock had 4 price appreciations in the last 20 session but is 3 for 5 recently. 19.46% price increase in the last month isn't bad.

Fundamentally this is the weakest stock with revenue expected to decrease by 1.2% next year but earning up 10.2%. With only a 3% growth rate consensus for the next 5 years the stock still enjoys 2 buy and 2 hold recommendation from analysts.

I'm not sure what your opinion is but it sounds like Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) is the pick from this bucket of broadcasting stocks. Yes this is a penny stock trading at close to a dollar a share but with volume up to 9 million shares a day, it's a penny stock we can all love.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.
Disclosure: No positions at the time of publication

Comments: View Comments |  Thursday February 18, 2010

Each day when I screen on Barchart for the stocks that are hitting new highs the symbol MEND - Micrus Endovascular keeps coming up. When I sort for frequency this stock had 14 price advances in the last 20 trading sessions and had 4 in the most recent 5 days. It has enjoyed a 31.51% price increase in the last month. Barchart's 13 technical indicators hit a buy signal on all 13 indicators for a 100% buy rating

Micrus Endovascular Corporation is a medical device company that develops, manufactures and markets implantable and disposable medical devices used in the treatment of cerebral vascular diseases.

Zack recently upgraded this company to a buy and other analysts agree. 11 analysts have increased their earning per share estimates in just the last 7 day. The consensus is for a 14.2% growth in sales and a 7.0 growth in EPS. The 5 year compounded EPS growth is estimated at 32.2%. Wall Street has 11 buy recommendations out with only 2 holds.

Other sites agree -- Motley Fool members think the stock will out perform the market by a vote of 72 to 4 with the All Stars in agreement 19 to 2. The Wall Street columnists Fool follows like the stock 16 to 0.

What more could you want in a stock:

1 -Recent upgrade by Zacks
2 -Price appreciation in more than 50% of the recent trading sessions
3- All 13 of Barchart's technical indicators signal buy
4 -Other site like Motley Fool have over whelming interest

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure: no positions at the time of publication

Comments: View Comments |  Wednesday February 17, 2010

When I begin to search for new stocks I always begin the same way using Barchart to run a list of the stocks having recent price appreciation and then sorting for the stocks that have had the most frequent price appreciations in the last 20 trading sessions. I then run through a sorting process to weed the list down further. My pick for today is Tyson Foods Inc (TSN) .

I'll go into the reasons in a moment. I don't know about you but I am eating a lot more chicken. Many of my friends are eating less red meat and those that haven't gone over to the dark side and become total vegetarians are restricting themselves to fish and chicken. Having been raised in the south I like chicken just about any way you can fix it: grilled, fried, baked, but I still like it with the skin on -- I'm not totally nuts yet.

Tyson Foods, Inc. is an integrated producer, processor and marketer of chicken and poultry-based food products. Tyson supplies chicken products through food service, retail grocery stores, club stores and international distribution channels. The core business is chicken in the United States; but they also make corn and flour tortillas under the Mexican Original brand and through its subsidiary Cobb Vantress, a chicken breeding stock supplier. If you haven't heard of the brand you don't eat chicken.

The stock is on my list because it has hit new highs in 12 of the last trading sessions and is 5 for 5 recently. The stock had a 22.45% price appreciation in the last 30 days and has 13 of 13 buy signals on Barchart's technical indicators for a 100% buy rating.

Of the 13 analysts following the stock 11 have revised their next years EPS estimates in the last 7 days. The consensus is for a 4.2% revenue growth next year coupled with a 5.1% increase in earning per share. They estimate a 8.5% compounded EPS growth for the next 5 years. Brokerage analysts give the stock 6 buy and 7 hold recommendations.

Short interest has also been decreasing from a high of 14 million shares last year down to 9 million at the end of January.

Just to double check my research I went over on Motley Fool and the CAPS members think the stock will outperform the market by a vote of 191 to 72 with the All Stars in agreement 55 to 15.

This is what I look for in a stock:

1 - The stock is having price appreciation in more than 50% of the recent trading sessions
2 - There is interest on Wall Street and the analysts are predicting increasing revenue and earnings
3 - Some other sites following the stock are not betting against it

Tyson Foods (TSN) might make a good addition to your portfolio. First research it yourself and see if it fits the rules you've set for yourself on risk and diversification. As always put in a stop loss at either a percentage drop or a daily moving average and monitor your portfolio on a regular basis.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: no position at the time of publication

Comments: View Comments |  Tuesday February 16, 2010

Each weekend I always step back and try to cut through all the noise and see what the state of the market really is. I use Barchart to get all my data and try to use a consistent methodology so I get the feel of what is really happening. Let's look at the 3 sets of data I use to see where we're at this week.

Value Line Index -- this index uses 1700 stocks so it's much broader than the narrower S&P 500 or Dow 30 -- Up 2.54% this week -- Last month down 2.89% but up 1.57% so far this month -- Let's call it recovering

1 - Barchart's technical indicators signal a buy on only 5 of the 13 signals for an overall rating of hold
2 - The Index closed Friday above its 100 day moving average but is still below its 20 and 50 DMA

Barchart market momentum indicator -- normally covers approximately 6000 stocks --the percentage of stocks closing above their daily moving averages for various time frames -- still weak but improving

1 - 20 DMA -- 42.01% closed above -- last week it was only 20.01%
2 - 50 DMA -- 43.42% closed above -- last week it was only 35.31%
3 - 100 DMA -- 54.84% closed above -- last week it was only 45.63%

Ratio of stocks hitting new highs to stocks hitting new lows for various periods -- 1.0+ bullish, 1.0 neutral, below .99 bearish -- we have 1 bearish and 2 bullish signals

1 - 20 day ratio of stocks hitting new highs to new lows -- 434/474 = .92
2 - 65 day ratio of stocks hitting new highs to new lows -- 246/209 = 1.18
3 - 100 day ratio of stocks hitting new highs to new lows -- 194/149 = 1.30

Summary - the market shows improving numbers but has still not returned to the level where I feel comfortable. When at least 50% of the stocks are trading above their recent daily moving averages then you have a better than 50/50 chance of having your portfolio increase. There is a lot going on over there in Europe and we seem to be improving faster than they are. Greece is a problem and I'm afraid that we may see problems in Portugal, Spain and maybe even France. My biggest fear is not the economic turmoil but maybe some civil unrest. If there are large numbers of men ages 18-40 unemployed and they begin to blame their governments for their plight we might see riots like we saw in some of the poorer parts of Paris a few years ago. Nothing good can happen during civil unrest. That leads me to my next investment.

Next week's strategy -- Since our economy has a jump on Europe I'm going to short the Euro. I'll do that by adding 500 shares of EUO - the ProShare Ultrashort Euro ETF - Right now the Euro is at 1.359. Back a few years ago I can remember when it traded at .85. If that happened again since this is a leveraged ETF I could see a gain of up to 120% on this trade.

Wall Street Survivor results -- This month I look like a champ so far. The S&P 500 is up .15% and I'm up 4.52% with the next competitor the Motley Fool All Stars up .57%. I'm still down for the lifetime of this contest but I'm trying to catch up. We've all seen how rankings can change at the drop of a hat. Wish me luck.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVan Meerten@gmail.com

Disclosure -- I do not hold any positions in the stocks in my Wall Street Survivor portfolio at the time of publication.

Comments: View Comments |  Monday February 15, 2010

As always I start my quest for the next great stock by taking the new high list on Barchart and sorting for frequency. I then take the top 10 and look for something interesting. Yesterday when all the major banks were getting hit on the chin the smaller and regional banks seemed to be doing better. Sandy Spring seems to be that small bank I'm looking for.

SANDY SPRING ( SASR ) is a bank holding company for Sandy Spring National Bank of Maryland. The bank is community oriented, and conducts a full-service commercial banking business through community offices located in Montgomery, Howard, Prince George's and Anne Arundel counties in Maryland. Looks like they are in a very strategic geographic region.

The analysts are beginning to take note and Janney Montgomery Scott, FBR Capital and Robert W. Baird have all recently upgraded their recommendations on this stock. In the last 7 days there has been 5 upward EPS revisions and the consensus is that there will be an increase in revenue of 6.7% plus an EPS improvement from a 28 cent loss this year to a profit of 83 cents. Nice EPS improvement.

On the technical side Barchart has 4 of the 5 short term technical indicators as a buy with one hold for an 80% short term rating. The stock had 13 new price appreciations the last month for a 48% price gain.

Now I'm not sure which banks are going to survive but I do know that the industry as a whole will survive. The industry is just too vital to the economy and the way we all do business everyday not to have a place in our communities. Small community banks will survive and Obama has promised to make that happen and give them support.

I'm taking a flyer on this one and adding Sandy Springs ( SASR ) to my VMSLO portfolio. This is the more risky of my 2 model portfolios but it goes in the risky portfolio because the trading volume recently has been below 100K shares per day.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please make a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure: I hold no positions in SASR at the time of publication.

Comments: View Comments |  Tuesday February 9, 2010

I just returned from a week in Orlando at the Money Show. The speakers were terrific and I came back with a lot of good ideas that I'll share in the coming weeks. I'm not sure what happened to your portfolio but I came back to a lot of triggered stop losses. My Wall Street Survivor portfolio is down 1.97% for the month which puts me back in 6th place behind this months winner so far, Tobin Smith who has a 1.56% gain.

Most speakers at the Money Show had different opinions on the market, how to play it and what's in store for the next 6 months but one thing they all agreed on was that earnings, the economy and job numbers are not being properly factored into this market. Things are improving but every time someone in Washington opens their mouth the hot air deflates the market. Is the hot air deflating your portfolio?

Let's take a step back and see how the market did. As usual I'll use Barchart for my data.

Value Line Index -- I use this index because it contains 1700 stocks making it broader than the narrower Dow 30 or the S&P 500 -- this week down by .95%

1 - Barchart's technical indicators signal a 40% sell signal -- 3 buys, 2 holds and 8 sells
2 - The index closed Friday below its 20, 50 & 100 day moving averages for the first time in many months

Barchart's market momentum indicator -- approximately 6000 stock are used -- the percentage of stocks closing above their daily moving averages for various time frames -- above 50% good but below 50% bad -- this week all 3 looked bad

1 - 20 DMA -- only 20.08% closed above
2 - 50 DMA -- only 35.45% closed above
3 - 100 DMA -- only 45.78 closed above

Ratio of stocks hitting new highs to stocks hitting new lows for various time periods -- 1.0+ bullish, 1.0 neutral, below .99 bearish -- this week all 3 time frames were very bearish

1 - 20 day ratio of new highs to new lows -- 278/3660 = .08
2 - 50 day ration of new highs to new lows -- 152/1733 = .09
3 - 100 day ratio of new highs to new lows -- 74/962 = .08

Summary -- The market is reacting very negatively to the hot air spewing out of Washington. The improving economy, job numbers and earnings are being overshadowed by the threats coming out of the White House. Isn't it ironic that Obama took all the campaign handouts from Wall Street, the banks and hedge fund managers and now spends his time demonizing them and telling the common folk how he will punish them. This week I'll trim non-performing stocks from my portfolios but I'll hold up replacing them till I see a little bit of support in the market numbers.

Alternative strategy -- At the Money Show I ran into 2 of my all time Wall Street heroes -- Robert Stovall and Paul Kangas. Both these guys are going strong and still giving us all some productive and sane advice. Since it's Super Bowl Sunday it might be time to give a return visit to Mister Stovall's Super Bowl indicator. He's observed that the winner of the Super Bowl predicts the performance of the market for the rest of the year. If the NFL wins he can look forward to an up market, if the AFL wins the market will perform poorly. Don't laugh; the indicator has been correct for 34 of the last 43 Super Bowls. Before you go to bed tonight the Bowl game winner will be determined and you'll know how to play the market. I'm not taking sides, I just want to know whether to go long or short.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com
Disclosure: I have no positions in the stock in my Wall Street Survivor portfolio

Comments: View Comments |  Sunday February 7, 2010