Financial Tides pick today is O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. ( ORLY ) a specialty retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment and accessories to both ``do-it-yourself`` customers and professional mechanics or service technicians. O'Reilly stores carry an extensive product line consisting of new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, such as alternators, starters, fuel pumps, water pumps, and brake shoes and pads, maintenance items, such as oil, antifreeze, fluids, engine additives and appearance products, accessories, such as floor mats and seat covers.

The company has been on an acquisition tear lately and will soon integrate 1300 CKS, 123 Checkers and 141 Murrays stores into their fold bringing their total to over 3500 stores. All these stores will be rebannered and new inventory will be O'Reilly labeled. They have experienced a 7% increase in same store sales of the O'Reilly stores and a 5% increase is same store sales of the newly acquired stores.

The technical price action in the stock has been impressive. The price has appreciated 17.88% in the last 30 days. Barchart gives it a 100% technical buy rating with all 13 technical indicators signaling a buy. The stock hit 13 new highs in the last 20 trading session. It trades around 49.31 with a 50 day moving average of 42.12,

Wall Street likes it too with 14 buy, 10 hold and no negative recommendations released. Analysts expect the sales to increase 7.10% this year and 7.60% next year. Earning per share after acquisitions are factored in are expected to increase 17.30% this year, 15.50% next year and continue for a 5 year annual compounded EPS growth of 16.12%.

Investor sentiment is high with the Motley Fool CAPS members thinking the stock will beat the market by a vote of 210 to 13 with the All Stars in agreement by a vote of 75 to 5. The Wall Street calumniates Fool follows have had favorable articles 13 to 1.

Long term investors should expect this stock to increase to about 56.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Comments: View Comments |  Friday April 30, 2010

Lately I've been watching all the ads on TV and other places in the mass media where Ed Whitacre the GM CEO struts across the scene and brags about how proud he is that GM paid back their TARP loans ahead of time and with interest to boot. Nowhere did I hear a "Thank you". As a taxpayer, I loaned him the money, my taxes funded the tax credit for clunker programs and we the American consumer bought his cars.

It was not his brilliance or the hard work of his management team that turned GM around it was the benevolence of the American taxpayers and consumers, plus a little luck from the problems experienced by Toyota that made all his new sales possible.

Mister Whitacre, my mom always told me that whenever someone does you a favor it would be very rude not to say "Thank you". Since you forgot to say "Thank you", I bet your mom is embarrassed.

I started thinking that if the auto industry is turning around maybe there might be some auto suppliers that might have recent price appreciation and glowing recommendations from Wall Street so I did a little screening and came up with a few that might make sense to consider for your portfolios.

When I look at an industry to mine for gems I usually use 3 yard sticks to get a feel of the likelihood that a stock will increase. The yard sticks are:

1 - Technical Price Momentum -- Barchart
2 - Wall Street Recommendations -- Yahoo Finance
3 - Investor Sentiment -- Motley Fool

It's not a perfect system but if you find stocks that are having positive price momentum and then verify that Wall Street looks for increased sales and earnings and the general public has an interest in the stock, then you are not flying totally blind.

Dorman Products ( DORM ) is a leading supplier of OE Dealer `Exclusive` automotive replacement parts, automotive hardware, brake products, and household hardware to the Automotive Aftermarket and Mass Merchandise markets. Dorman automotive parts and hardware are marketed under the OE Solutions, HELP, AutoGrade, First Stop, Conduct-Tite, Pik-A-Nut and Scan-Tech brand names.

Price Momentum - 13 of Barchart's technical indicators signal buy for a 100% technical buy rating. The stock appreciated 30.54% in the last 30 days and hit new highs in 8 of the last 20 trading sessions.

Wall Street Recommendations - Only BB&T follows the stock and rates it a buy. They look for a 9.60% increase in sales this year and a 6.20% next year. Earnings are estimated to increase 12.20% this year and 14.50% next year.

Investor Sentiment -- Motley Fool CAPS members vote 120 to 5 that the stock will beat the market with the more experienced All Stars voting 40 to 0.

Commercial Vehicle Group ( CVGI ) supplies interior systems, vision safety solutions and other cab-related products for the global commercial vehicle market, including the heavy-duty (Class 8) truck market, the construction market and other specialized transportation markets. The company's products include suspension seat systems, interior trim systems, such as instrument and door panels, headliners, cabinetry and floor systems, mirrors, wiper systems, controls and switches specifically designed for applications in commercial vehicle cabs.

Price Momentum -- 12 of the 13 Barchart technical indicators signal buy for a 96% buy rating. The stock appreciated 31.01% in the last 30 days and hit new highs in 9 of the last 20 trading sessions.

Wall Street Recommendations -- 2 analysts have buy recommendations released with sales predicted to increase 11.90% this year and 36.90% next year. Earnings are estimated to increase 88.50% this year, 193.00% next year and continue on a 5 year compounded growth rate of 10% per year.

Investor Sentiment -- Motley Fool CAPS members think the stock will out perform the market by a vote of 57 to 32 with the All Stars voting 29 to 10.

WILLIAMS CONTROLS, INC. (WMCO ) is diversified manufacturer and distributor through its wholly operated subsidiaries, Williams Controls Industries, Inc.; Kenco Williams, Inc.; NESC Williams, Inc.; Williams Technologies, Inc. and Williams World Trade, Inc. Co.'s operations are divided into four industry segments. Heavy Vehicle Components: Co.'s heavy vehicle component product lines include electronic throttles, exhaust brakes and pneumatic and hydraulic controls. These products are used in applications which include heavy vehicles, utility and off- highway equipment, transit buses and mining machines.

Price Momentum -- 12 of 13 of Barchart's technical indicators signal a 96% buy rating. The stock has appreciated 14.91% in the last 30 days and hit 10 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions.

Wall Street Recommendations -- Just 1 buy with sales expected to increase by 12.10% this year and 40.20% next. The big news is a prediction that earning per share will increase 100.00% this year.

Investor Sentiment -- Motley Fool Caps members are high on this stock with a vote of 55 to 1 that the stock will beat the market with the All Stars voting 7 to 0.

Modine ( MOD ) operates primarily in a single industry consisting of the manufacture and sale of heat transfer equipment. This includes heat exchangers for cooling all types of engines, transmissions, auxiliary hydraulic equipment, air conditioning components used in cars, trucks, farm and construction machinery and equipment, and heating and cooling equipment for residential and commercial building HVAC (heating, ventilating, air conditioning and refrigeration equipment).

Price Momentum -- 12 of 13 of Barchart's technical indicators say buy. The stock appreciated 22.72% in the last 30 days and hit 11 new highs in the last 20 sessions.

Wall Street Recommendations -- There are 2 buy recommendations based on a predicted turn around. Sales are expected to contract this year but increase by 10.10% next year. They feel an earnings improvement is the story with an EPS increase of 89.30% this year, 180.00% next year and continue for a 5 year annual compounded EPS growth rate of 12.00% per year.

Investor Sentiment -- CAPS members think the stock will beat the market with a 53 to 15 vote and the All Stars vote 25 to 5.

Cooper Tire & Rubber Company ( CTB ) specializes in the manufacture and marketing of automotive products. Products for Cooper's Tire Group include automotive, motorcycle and truck tires, inner tubes, tread rubber and equipment. In the Automotive Group, Cooper is an original equipment supplier of sealing, trim, NVH control systems and fluid handling systems for the automotive industry in North America, Europe and South America.

Price Momentum -- 96% Barchart technical buy with buy signals from 12 of the 13 technical indicators. The stock has appreciated 9.68% in the last 30 days and hit 6 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions.

Wall Street Recommendations - 4 buys and 2 holds with sales expected to increase by 15.80% this year and 5.70% next year. A turnaround in earnings is forecated from a loss this year to increases of 4.80% next year and continuing for 5 years at a rate of 11.00% per year.

Investor Sentiment -- Fool CAPS members vote that the stock will beat the market by a vote of 159 to 53 and the All Stars agree 60 to 10.

LKQ Corp ( LKQX ) is the largest nationwide provider of recycled OEM automotive replacement parts and related services, with sales and processing facilities and redistribution centers that reach most major markets in the United States.

Price Momentum - 12 of 13 of Barchart's indicators signal buy for a 96% buy rating. A 30 day price appreciation of 7.19% includes 10 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions.

Wall Street Recommendation -- Analysts are high on this stock with 8 buy and 5 holds released. Sales are predicted to increase 12.30% this year and 8.90% next year. Earnings are expected to be a solid increase of 19.30% this year, 17.10% next year and keep up a 5 year compounded growth rate of 17.59% per year.

I hope you've found this snapshot view of these 6 companies as useful to you. If you like this approach let's hear from you and we'll do it again.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: I do not hold positions in any of the stocks mentioned at the time of publication

Comments: View Comments |  Thursday April 29, 2010

Financial Tides likes Leggett & Platt, Inc. ( LEG ) one of the leading manufacturers of engineered products serving several major markets. Sales and production are focused on residential furnishings, commercial furnishings, aluminum products, industrial materials, and specialized products. The company has facilities throughout North America and in numerous international locations.

The company cut costs, exited unprofitable lines of business and repurchased stock to improve it's financial strength. With a very strong financial position, the company is expected to continue increasing it's dividend as it has done for over 39 years.

Technical price momentum -- The stock has a buy signal on all 13 of Barchart's technical indicators. The stock hit new highs in 12 of the last 20 trading sessions and also in 4 of the last 5 sessions. In the last 30 days the stock has appreciated 12.96%. It trades around 24.39 with a 50 day moving average of 21.29.

Wall Street buy recommendations - Analysts have 3 buy and 3 hold recommendations released and expect increased sales and earnings. Sales are estimated to increase 9.90% this year followed by 5.9o% next year. Earnings per share predictions are terrific with expected increases in EPS of 67.70% this year , 24.20% next year and maintain a 5 year annual compounded EPS growth rate of over 15.00% a year.

Positive investor sentiment -- Over on Motley Fool the CAPS members think this stock will beat the market by a vote of 119 to 42. The All Stars also vote positively by a vote of 46 to 11.

If you're looking for a financially strong balance sheet and income statement, recent price momentum, a Wall Street following plus positive investor sentiment look at Legget Platt Inc (LEG).

Jim Van Meerten is a investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com
Disclosure : No position in LEG at the time of publication

Comments: View Comments |  Wednesday April 28, 2010

Financial Tides picks Cummins Inc. (CMI) one of the leading worldwide designers and manufacturers of diesel engines. The company also produces natural gas engines and engine components and subsystems. Cummins provides power and components for a wide variety of equipment in its key businesses: engine, power generation, and filtration.

Recent changes in emissions regulations at the EPA have given the company's new high efficiency engines a sales advantage. New sales agreements in Brazil, China and especially with Tata in India will give the company an opportunity for new sales growth for at least the next 5 years.

Technical indicators from Barchart:

1 - 100% Barchart technical buy signal
2 - New highs in 11 of the last 20 trading sessions plus 4 in the recent 5
3 - 17.91% price appreciation in the last 30 days
4 - Trades around 73.53 with a 50 day moving average of 62.42

Increased sales and earnings predicted:

1 - Analysts have released 10 buy and 7 hold recommendations
2 - Sales predicted to increase 4.80% this year and 18.70% next year
3 - Earnings forecasted to increase 2.40% this year, 64.70% next year and continue with a 5 year annual compounded rate of EPS growth of 12% per year

Very high investor sentiment:

1 - Motley Fool CAPS members think the stock will out perform the market by a vote of 914 to 51
2 - The All Stars agree with a vote of 233 to 8

The stock meets all of my investment criteria:

1 - Recent and consistent upward price momentum
2 - 100% Barchart technical buy signal
3 - Positive press and investor sentiment
4 - Wall Street predicting increased sales and earnings.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: no positions in CMI at the time of publication

Comments: View Comments |  Wednesday April 28, 2010

Autodesk ( ADSK) is one of the world's leading design software and digital content companies for architectural design and land development, manufacturing, utilities, telecommunications, and media and entertainment. Autodesk provides design software, Internet portal services, wireless development platforms, and point-of-location applications that empower customers in numerous countries to drive business and remain competitive. This is a very financially strong company and should benefit for increased technology spending when the economy turns around.

Barchart has given this stock a 100% technical buy rating and gets a buy signal from all 13 technical indicators. The stock hit 15 new highs in 20 sessions and was 4 for 5 recently. In the last month the stock has enjoyed an 18.14% appreciation in price. The stock trades around 34.85 with a 50 day moving average of 29.67

Analysts predict increases in sales of 2.20% this year and 6.40% next year. Earnings per share are estimated to increase by 14.10% this year, 27.40% next year and continue with a 5 year annual compounded growth rate of 15.37% annually.

Investor sentiment on Motley Fool is high with a vote of 713 to 52 that the stock will beat the market with the experienced All Stars in agreement 292 to 8. The Wall Street journalists Fool follows have given 16 positive articles.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: no position in ADSk at the time of publication

Comments: View Comments |  Tuesday April 27, 2010

At the end of each week in Financial Tides, I like to clear my head of all the articles and newscasts that have clouded my vision during the week and look at just the facts. I use the data on Barchart to give me the 3 yard sticks to measure the market performance. Then I plan my strategy for the coming week.

Value Line Index -- Contains 1700 stocks so it is broader than the S&P 500 or much narrower Dow 30 -- Still climbing

- Index up this week by 3.55% -- up for 3 months in a row
- Index closed Friday above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving average
- Hit new highs in 12 of the last 20 trading sessions and was 5 for 5 last week
- 7.21% price appreciation for this month
- 100% Barchart technical buy -- 13 of 13 technical buy signals

Barchart Market Momentum -- Percentage of stocks closing above their daily moving averages for various time frames -- Above 50% is always better

20 DMA -- 77.90% closed above -- 68.30% last week -- 64.93% last month
50 DMA -- 85.01% closed above -- 83.15% last week -- 78.65% last month
100 DMA -- 86.21% closed above -- 83.86% last week -- 78.42% last month

Ratio of stocks hitting new highs to new lows for various time frames -- 1.0+ = bullish, 1.0 = neutral, below .99 = bearish -- Very bullish

20 day new high/new low ratio -- 2350/413 = 5.69
65 day new high/new low ratio -- 1860/140 = 13.29
100 day new high/new low ratio -- 1664/106 = 15.70

Investment Strategy -- Since all 3 yard sticks are positive I'll continue to stay in the market. I'll cull stocks that don't close above their 50 DMA and replace them.

Wall Street Survivor results -- The columnists who contribute to Top Stocks have a little friendly competition going over on Wall Street Survivor . I'm climbing out of the hole I was in and month to day I'm in first place with a 9.3% return just ahead of John Reese with a 5.15% return and we're both ahead of the S&P turning in a 4.09% return. We still have a full week to go this month so anything can happen.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: I do own positions in stocks mentioned in my blogs

Comments: View Comments |  Saturday April 24, 2010

Each week end on Financial Tides we take time to forget all the TV and newsprint headlines and see what really happened in the market this week. Any of you old enough to remember Dragnet ? Sargent Friday would always say "Just the facts Ma'am" when anyone would ramble on. So let's go to Barchart and get just the facts. We use 3 different yard sticks to gauge the market because no single yardstick is perfect all the time.

Value Line Index -- Contains 1700 stocks -- Much broader than the S&P 500 or very narrow Dow 30 -- Index still positive

- Index up on 4 of the last 5 days for a weekly gain of 1.17%
- Index up for the 4th week in a row
- Index up for the 3rd month in a row
- Barchart technical indicators have 12 of 13 buy signals
- Barchart technical rating of a 96% buy
- Index closed Friday above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving average

Barchart Market Momentum -- Contains over 6000 stocks -- Percentage of stocks closing above their daily moving averages for various time periods -- Still over 50% closed above their DMAs

- 20 DMA -- 68.16% closed above this week -- 71.55% last week -- 80.95% last month
- 50 DMA -- 83.11% closed above this week -- 84.68% last week -- 82.82% last month
- 100 DMA -- 83.72% closed above this week -- 83.8.3% last week -- 82.74% last month

Ratio of stock hitting new highs to new lows for various time periods -- 1.0+ bullish, 1.0 neutral, below .99 bearish -- Bullish for all time periods

- 1 month ratio of new highs/new lows -- 1039/409 = 2.54
- 3 month ratio of new highs/new lows -- 825/89 = 9.27
- 6 month ratio of new highs/new lows -- 679/51 = 13.31

Investment Strategy -- Since the market still seems to be in an upward climb I'll continue to cull stocks that are not maintaining a price above their 50 day moving average and replace them until I see a market pull-back.

Wall Street Survivor Results -- The columnists on Top Stocks have a little friendly competition over on Wall Street Survivor. This month I got a lucky and have a 5.88% return so far compared to the S&P 500 return of 1.94%. The Motley Fool All-Stars are right on my heels with a return this month of 3.41%.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: I do not hold positions in the stocks mentioned

Comments: View Comments |  Saturday April 17, 2010

On Financial Tides I just try to give you the facts not the hype. Another week has passed and the talking heads on the TV were as confusing as ever. Every hour it was a different story -- Oil is up that's why the market is down -- Oil is up that's why the stock market is up -- Since 1933 the market has been more up than down on the 3rd Tuesday of each week. Rather than just try to tell you what happened they over analyze and try to find some explanation no matter how lame. Let's be consistent and use our 3 yard sticks to see where we stand.

Value Line Index -- Contains 1700 stocks so it's much broader than the S&P 500 or the much narrower Dow 30

1 Index was up by 2.49% this week -- That make 3 weeks in a row and better yet 3 months in a row

2 - The Index closed on Friday above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages

3 - Index is up 5.60% in the last 30 days

4 - Barchart's 13 technical indicators all signal a buy for a 100% technical buy rating

Barchart Market Momentum -- contains 6000 stocks -- Percentage of stock closing above their own daily moving averages for various time frames -- Good numbers for all 3 time frames

1 - 20 DMA -- 71.77% closed above -- 64.69% did last week

2 - 50 DMA -- 84..82% closed above -- 82.52% did last week

3 - 100 DMA -- 84.04% closed above -- 81.58% did last week

Ratio of stock hitting new highs to new lows for various time frames -- 1.0+ bullish, 1.0 neutral, below .99 bearish -- Bullish for all 3 time frames

1 - 20 day new high/new low ratio -- 1520/336 = 4.52

2 - 65 day new high/new low ratio -- 1082/97 = 11.15

3 - 100 day new high/new low ratio -- 996/76 = 13.10

Investing Strategy -- All 3 yard sticks gave me very positive vibes. If one of my stocks fails to maintain a price above its 50 DMA I'll cull and replace it. This market seems to have solid legs at the present time.

Wall Street Survivor results -- The columnists for Top Stocks have a little friendly competition over on Wall Street Survivor. This month the S&P 500 has returned 1.87% so far. I'm in first place for the month at 5.15% just slightly ahead of the Motley Fool All Stars with a 2.42% return. John Reese also beat the bench mark with a 2.36% return.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who write on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure: I do not own positions in the stock contained in my blogs.

Comments: View Comments |  Saturday April 10, 2010

All investors search for the "Holy Grail" of investing: an investment strategy that just can't miss. I know, I've been looking for it for over 40 years and haven't found it yet. I've had to change my strategy several times. I had a new idea recently and decided to try it out. I'd like to share it with you and see what you think.

Here's my idea: Find the sector ETF that is currently having the highest relative strength and try to hand pick the best stocks from that portfolio. It's the Willie Sutton Theory. Willie was a famous bank robber and was asked:"Why do you rob banks?" His reply: "Because that's where the money is!"

If as a group, these are the stocks performing the best then why not search for the gems in the mother lode?

This week the sector ETF having the best relative strength is the Power Share Dynamic Leisure and Entertainment ETF (PEJ). The fund is a mixture of stocks from restaurants, cruise lines, time shares, to Expedia (EXP), Home Shopping Network (HSNI) and even the World Wrestling Federation Entertainment Inc. (WWE), a basket of discretionary income stocks. A real mixed bag and since they include the word "Dynamic" is guess this is an actively managed ETF.

I used Barchart to make up a sample portfolio of the top 25 stocks in the ETF to see how it would rate and to my surprise I had 22 buy, 1 hold and only 2 sell technical ratings. Every single stock had a positive price appreciation in the last 50 days.

The ETF had a 19.34% return in the last 50 days verses the S&P 500 return of 8.95%. 22 of the 25 stocks beat the Index. The best return was Home Shopping Network (HSNI) at 66.22% and the worst was Starbucks (SBUX) at 7.81% just slightly less than the benchmark.

What do you think? Can analysing the fastest rising sector ETFs for gems be a solid investment strategy or am I following a pipe dream like trying to find the Lost Dutchman's mine somewhere in the Superstition Mountains of Arizona?

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: I do not hold positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

Comments: View Comments |  Wednesday April 7, 2010

Ever weekend on Financial Tides we do a market wrap-up. It's not the weekend yet but since the market is closed for the Good Friday holiday my weekly market barometer report is a day early. I use the data on Barchart to find objectively what happened in the market. I use 3 different yard sticks because over the years I've found that no single indicator is 100% effective all the time but if you look at the market in several logical ways you might be able to look past all the headlines and figure out for yourself how to approach your investing in the future. Let's see what my yard sticks reveal.

Value Line Index -- Contains 1700 stocks so it's much broader than the S&P 500 or the very narrow Dow 30 -- Positive price momentum

1 - Up 3 days out of 4 for a net gain of 1.16% last week
2 - If the Index were a stock it would have an over all 88% Barchart buy rating, hitting buy signals on 11 of 13 technical indicators
3 - Hit new highs in 12 of the last 20 trading session and 3 for 5 recently
4 - 30 day price appreciation of 6.91%
5 - Tracking above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages

Barchart Market Momentum -- Approximately 6000 stocks -- Percentage of stocks trading above their 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages -- Above 50% always good -- Market improving

1 - 20 DMA -- 64.97% closed above -- 65.03% last week
2 - 50 DMA -- 82.49% closed above -- 79.08% last week
3 - 100 DMA -- 81.61% closed above -- 78.77% last week

Ratio of stocks hitting new highs to new lows for various periods -- 1.0+ bullish, 1.0 neutral, below .99 bearish -- Bullish for all 3 time periods

1 - 20 day ratio of new highs/new lows -- 1362/501 = 2.72
2 - 65 day ratio of new highs/new lows -- 856/147 = 5.82
3 - 100 day ratio of new highs/new lows -- 794/109 = 7.28

Next week's investment strategy -- A rising tide floats all boats. It's easier to have a portfolio of winners if more than 50% of the stocks are rising than it is to find winners when more than 50% of the market is sinking. Just a little common sense. Next week I'll prune out the stocks that aren't maintaining a price above their 50 day moving averages and won't be afraid to replace them with rising stocks.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Comments: View Comments |  Friday April 2, 2010