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Capital Preservation: Last Chance...
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The short term momentum oscillators remain negative, confirming the bearish stance of the AlphaKing Trading indicator. The accumulation/distribution profile remains negative, with a failure of the second 2%+ high volume follow-through advance needed to confirm a new buy signal from this very important trend confirming indicator. The leadership profile remains bearish, with Friday's close yielding 98 stocks making new 52 week highs versus 236 stocks making new 52 week lows. The 4% rule has turned positive, confirmed with bullish Federal Reserve policy. The VXO volatility indicator closed the week at 24.1, showing some lessening of fear, and remains contrarian bearish. The primary Elliott wave count continues to suggest a wave 3 melt-down run remains underway, with the current wave count wave (ii) of Wave 3, and an out-right crash in the wave (iii) of 3 should land in the non-too-distant future as the wave (ii) counter-trend push exhausts itself. Traditional seasonal trends have us looking for a difficult third quarter for the bulls after a modest summer rally attempt stalls, while the Presidential cycle remains bullish for the remainder of 2008. The Benner-Fibonacci cycle will remain bullish until 2010, though this prolonged time period may include one or more cyclical bear phases. The AlphaKing combination cycle sees a bear market slump running all the way into mid-December when the next major turn-date is slated to land. Summary: While the rally off last week's near crashing lows has been swift, the internal technical set-up appears to confirm the move nothing more than part of a counter-trend rally within an ongoing bear market. The stock indexes have so far retraced a Fibonacci 38% of points lost in the wave 1 collapse, which is the first potential stopping point for Elliott wave 2s. The 50% and 63% Fibonacci retracement levels are near the 50 day moving averages for the stock indexes, which remains the most likely stopping point for this advance. What should follow - once the wave (ii) ends for real (either here or at the 50 day MAs) - is a bona-fide melt-down run and probable crash in wave (iii) of wave 3. The current rally - which should remain very modest, if it hasn't ended already - should be the last chance to exit longs and enter shorts ahead of the pending collapse. Things should move very quickly to the downside once wave (ii) has ended, so any portfolio pruning should be done sooner rather than later, as later may never happen. Capital preservation remains key to the next few tricky months. Kevin Wilde, Chief Trading Strategist, AlphaKing.com | ||
An apple a day keeps the repo man away? Nope...
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American Express told us consumers are not spending on their credit cards like they used to, not even their richer clients. They also saw a deterioration in credit quality of their credit card loans. Apple told us that while sales in the recent quarter were OK on the backs of the new I-Phone - if nothing spectacular - they also saw a pullback in overall consumer demand for their products, cutting forecasts for future quarter sales and earnings. All suggestive consumers are struggling to keep their heads above the financial waters in the face of collapsing housing market, weak employment markets, and rising food and energy costs. The stock market opened hard today on the backs of these smacks of reality in the head to complacent bulls, only for a rebound to land shortly after the open. Any and all rallies - including this one - should be used to exit longs and enter short trades in anticipation of a move to new lows. The internal quality during that expected hard decline should dictate whether such a move to new lows is destined to be a fake whipsaw as part of the bottoming process, or a bona-fide crashing capitulation crash. Watch out: the repo man is coming to a street near you... | ||
Time to batten down the hatches...
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Sellers jumped on board positive early action today, with the modest red ink going into the close for the major stock indexes run on lower volume than we experienced on Friday. The leadership profile remains negative, with 70 stocks making new highs versus 198 stocks making new lows. The short term momentum oscillators have turned negative once again, confirming the bearish stance of the AlphaKing Trading Indicator. We have new trades below to add to our short exposure ahead of an expected move to new lows. The overall pattern remains solidly bearish, with every sell-off running in five waves and every bounce in three, all absent any sign of a capitulation spike down and corresponding up-spike in fear for the VIX. The rally last week has offered a great opportunity to add to short positions, and that is exactly what we are doing at this juncture. The action today that matters landed after hours, with American Express and Apple both falling hard post earnings releases, on the backs of news that signals a struggling consumer resulted in both lower retails sales and deteriorating credit quality. In short: consumers can't pay their bills, thus they can't be expected to buy retail luxuries such as I-Phones and Plasma TVs. The technical set-up argues very strongly for a smash below last week's lows for the stock indexes, and a bona-fide crash may very well develop from that position. Time to batten down the hatches... Kevin Wilde, Chief Trading Strategist AlphaKing.com. | ||
Time to add to new shorts...
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The stock index counter-trend advance appears to have run its course, and now a retest of recent near-crashing lows should ensue. The bear market remains very much the trend in play, and rallies should be used to add to short positions in anticipation of a pseudo - or real - crash to new lows slated to land in the non-too-distant-future. Kevin Wilde, Chief Trading Strategist AlphaKing.com | ||
Are we there yet? NOPE!
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The short term momentum oscillators are positive, in contrast with the bearish stance of the AlphaKing Trading indicator. The accumulation/distribution profile remains negative, confirmed with a bearish leadership profile, with Friday's close yielding 86 stocks making new 52 week highs versus 246 stocks making new 52 week lows. The 4% rule remains negative, while Federal Reserve policy remains bullish. The VXO volatility indicator closed the week at 25.5, showing some deceleration in fear, though well shy of anything that would signal the sell-off has suffered a capitulation needed to signal a turn positive. The primary Elliott wave count continues to suggest a wave 3 melt-down run is underway, with the current wave count wave (i) of Wave 3, though an out-right crash at this point is not out of the question. Traditional seasonal trends have us looking for a difficult third quarter for the bulls after a modest summer rally attempt stalls, while the Presidential cycle remains bullish for the remainder of 2008. The Benner-Fibonacci cycle will remain bullish until 2010, though this prolonged time period may include one or more cyclical bear phases. The AlphaKing combination cycle sees a bear market slump running all the way into mid-December when the next major turn-date is slated to land. Summary : It was a wild week in the stock market, with total volume just a bit higher than last week, and one accumulation day. We don't have the statistics yet, but it sure looked like some major short-covering was going on, as the Plunge Protection Team, with all the heavy hitters out trying to forestall a crash, and finally words from the SEC that they're going to crack down on naked short-selling. While we applaud the new enforcement promises, there is no credible evidence that it will keep stocks from falling. We expect the S&P 500 Index to break below 1200, with 1150 our target, to be followed by a larger, sideways churn area. While investor sentiment remains extremely bearish - thus signals the stock market is due a larger bounce - the internal wave pattern and overall technical set-up suggest at least one more scare-em type of plunge to new lows is needed to complete this down-leg of the bear. Thus, DOH, we are not there yet. Have a Great Weekend! Kevin Wilde, Chief Trading Strategist, AlphaKing.com | ||
Whistling past the graveyard
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Summary: What another volatile and interesting week, and one where the technicals suggest the bulls have scored a major victory. One that has the potential to turn the trend bullish for real. We will no doubt visit the larger implications of such a buy signal in regards to it being nothing more than a signal of a larger counter-trend advance within the confines of an on-going bear market. No matter what we will follow our indicators on the long side if they indeed trigger a new buy early next week. The stock market is overbought in the short term, and any pullback would likely stall any new buy. If volume picks up on any sell-off then the new buy maybe would be taken off the table for a while as the reality dawns that the recent rally surge was the ending move of an Elliott Wave 4 sucker move. The economic news continues to remain grim, so certainly that suggests the bulls are whistling past the graveyard. We at AlphaKing are getting ready for some rapid-fire trading (in-line with our indicators, of course.) Our indicators were designed to yield the highest overall return over the long term while minimizing false whipsaw signals, which is why we are waiting rather than jumping in on the long side right now. Have a great weekend! Kevin Wilde, Chief Trading Strategist, AlphaKing.com | ||
